Speculative Trading 

Shopify Inc. Upgraded to Buy on Strong AI-Powered Growth Prospects

Company Overview Shopify Inc. operates as a leading e-commerce platform provider, enabling businesses of all sizes to create and manage online stores. The company serves merchants across various verticals through its subscription solutions and merchant services, including payment processing capabilities that form a core part of its ecosystem. Financial Performance Analysis Shopify delivered robust fourth-quarter 2025 results with revenue growing 31% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive quarter of growth exceeding 30%. Revenue performance met expectations at 102% of full-year 2025 forecasts, though adjusted profit after tax and minority interests underperformed at 92% of projections. The shortfall was primarily attributed to payment-mix-driven margin pressure, including lower high-margin third-party referral fees and higher PayPal processing costs as more transaction volume flowed through Shopify's payment infrastructure. Both business segments contributed to growth, with subscription solutions advancing 17% year-on-year and merchant solutions expanding 35%. However, margins declined by 2% due to a mix shift toward lower-margin payment revenue. Key Growth Drivers -The Positives Shopify's upmarket and global momentum continues to broaden its growth foundation. The company secured notable enterprise clients including GM, Sonos, L'Oréal, Keurig Dr. Pepper, and Amer Sports during the quarter, demonstrating success across diverse verticals. North American revenue remained strong at 28% year-on-year growth, with Shopify now commanding over 14% of US e-commerce market share, up from over 12% in the fourth quarter of 2024. International expansion accelerated with 36% year-on-year revenue growth, and half of merchants now operating outside North America. Europe showed particular strength with gross merchandise value growing 45% year-on-year. Nearly half of incremental gross merchandise value dollars originated from outside North America during the fourth quarter. Shopify Plus, the company's enterprise-level, upmarket segment tailored for high-growth, high-volume merchants continues scaling effectively, accounting for 34% of monthly recurring revenue compared to 33% in the fourth quarter of 2024, with management noting rising average gross merchandise value per Plus merchant. Shopify's ecosystem flywheel strategy centres on payments integration and AI-powered commerce capabilities. Shopify Payments penetration increased to 68% of gross merchandise value from 64% previously, processing US$84 billion in the fourth quarter with 38% year-on-year growth. This enhanced checkout conversion rates and repeat purchase behaviour. The company is expanding demand surfaces through AI-commerce initiatives, including Agentic Storefronts and Universal Commerce Protocol integrations across major AI platforms. AI-originated orders have increased 15-fold since January 2025, positioning Shopify advantageously as transactions continue routing through its checkout and payment infrastructure, creating a structural growth loop where broader discovery leads to higher gross merchandise value, greater payment capture, and deeper ecosystem integration. Phillip Securities Research Recommendation Phillip Securities Research has upgraded Shopify from NEUTRAL to BUY rating, raising the target price to US$160 from the previous US$155. The upgrade reflects recent price performance and the company's strong positioning to capture growth in Agentic Commerce, with analysts maintaining a positive long-term outlook. Frequently Asked Questions Q: What is Phillip Securities Research's current recommendation for Shopify? A: Phillip Securities Research upgraded Shopify from NEUTRAL to BUY rating with a target price of US$160, increased from the previous US$155. Q: How did Shopify perform financially in the fourth quarter of 2025? A: Revenue grew 31% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive quarter of growth exceeding 30%. However, adjusted profit margins declined by 2% due to payment-mix pressures. Q: What drove the margin pressure in Shopify's recent results? A: Margin pressure resulted from lower high-margin third-party referral fees and higher PayPal processing costs as more transaction volume flowed through Shopify's payment rails, creating a mix shift toward lower-margin payment revenue. Q: How is Shopify performing in international markets? A: International revenue grew 36% year-on-year, with half of merchants now outside North America. Europe showed particular strength with gross merchandise value growing 45% year-on-year, and nearly half of incremental gross merchandise value dollars came from outside North America. Q: What is the significance of Shopify's AI-commerce initiatives? A: AI-originated orders increased 15-fold since January 2025 through Agentic Storefronts and Universal Commerce Protocol integrations. This creates a structural growth loop as transactions still route through Shopify's checkout and payment systems. Q: How is Shopify's upmarket strategy progressing? A: Shopify’s Plus segment accounted for 34% of monthly recurring revenue, up from 33% in the fourth quarter of 2024, with management noting rising average gross merchandise value per Plus merchant and continued enterprise client wins. Q: What is Shopify's current market position in US e-commerce? A: Shopify now commands over 14% of US e-commerce market share, increased from over 12% in the fourth quarter of 2024, demonstrating continued market share gains. Q: How important are Shopify Payments to the company's strategy? A: Shopify Payments penetration increased to 68% of gross merchandise value, processing US$84 billion in the fourth quarter with 38% year-on-year growth, strengthening checkout conversion and repeat purchases while deepening ecosystem integration. This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst.    Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Stocks

Singapore Budget 2026 Signals Strategic AI Pivot, Equity Boost

Fiscal Performance and Overview Singapore delivered a robust fiscal performance in FY2025, recording an overall surplus of S$15.1 billion, representing 1.9% of its GDP. This figure significantly exceeded the initial estimate of S$6.8 billion, primarily driven by higher-than-expected corporate and personal tax revenues totalling S$8 billion above projections. The strong performance occurred while expenditure and net investment returns remained within budgetary limits. For FY2026, the government projects a more moderate surplus of S$8.5 billion, equivalent to 1% of GDP. Strategic AI Investment Initiative The FY2026 budget marks a decisive strategic shift toward artificial intelligence development. This substantial investment encompasses research expenditure, tax deductions, and AI-related grants designed to transform four key economic sectors. The initiative includes establishing a National AI Council and expanding AI workforce training programs to address Singapore's structural challenges, including natural resource constraints, an aging population, and tight labour market conditions. Equity Market Enhancement Measures Singapore's commitment to strengthening its capital markets is evident through several significant funding allocations. The government announced a S$1.5 billion top-up for the Equity Development Program (EQDP), bringing total funding to S$6.5 billion, with the next batch of EQDP managers expected to be appointed by mid-2026. Additionally, a second S$1.5 billion Anchor Fund has been established specifically for pre-IPO financing to support high-quality public listings. The introduction of life-cycle funds will provide CPF contributors with enhanced equity exposure, further deepening retail participation in capital markets. Sector-Specific Impacts The budget's AI emphasis is expected to particularly benefit IT service providers and the data centre ecosystem, as increased AI adoption drives demand for computational infrastructure. Defence spending continues its upward trajectory with FY2026 allocation reaching S$24.9 billion, representing a 6.4% increase from the previous year's S$23.44 billion. The construction sector faces increased labour costs as foreign worker levies rise by S$100-150 monthly, while minimum wages increase to S$1,800 from S$1,600, with implementation scheduled for 2028. Frequently Asked Questions Q: What was Singapore's fiscal surplus performance in FY2025? A: Singapore achieved a fiscal surplus of S$15.1 billion (1.9% of GDP) in FY2025, more than double the estimated surplus of S$6.8 billion, primarily due to S$8 billion higher revenue from corporate and personal taxes. Q: How much is Singapore investing in AI development? A: The government is committing toward AI development through research spending, tax deductions, AI-related grants, transformation across four key sectors, establishing a National AI Council, and expanding AI workforce training. Q: What equity market initiatives were announced in Budget 2026? A: Key initiatives include a S$1.5 billion top-up for the EQDP (bringing total to S$6.5 billion), a S$1.5 billion Anchor Fund for pre-IPO financing, and life-cycle funds providing CPF contributors with greater equity exposure. Q: Which sectors are expected to benefit most from the AI focus? A: IT service providers and the data centre ecosystem are expected to be primary beneficiaries due to increased demand for computational infrastructure to support AI and token activity. Q: How much is defence spending increasing in FY2026? A: Defence spending is budgeted to increase 6.4% to S$24.9 billion in FY2026, following a 12.4% increase to S$23.44 billion in FY2025. Q: What changes are coming to foreign worker policies? A: From 2028, levies for basic-skilled workers in marine and process sectors will increase by S$100 and S$150 respectively, and minimum wages for full-time foreign workers will rise from S$1,600 to S$1,800 monthly. Q: What household support measures were announced? A: S$500 CDC vouchers will be distributed to 1.4 million Singaporean households in January 2027, along with S$200-S$400 cost-of-living payments for households with income below S$100,000. This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst.    Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Stocks

DBS Group Holdings Ltd Upgraded to Accumulate Despite Earnings Decline

DBS Group Holdings Ltd, Singapore's largest bank, has demonstrated resilience in a challenging operating environment by maintaining its dividend policy despite facing earnings pressures. Financial Performance and Dividend Policy DBS reported adjusted earnings of S$2.4 billion for 4Q25, representing a slight shortfall against analyst estimates with full year FY25 earnings at 95% of full-year forecasts. Despite the earnings decline, the bank significantly increased its quarterly dividend per share by 35% year-on-year to 81 cents, comprising 66 cents ordinary dividend and 15 cents capital return dividend. The total FY25 dividend per share reached S$3.06, marking a substantial 38% increase from the previous year. Mixed Operational Results The bank faced headwinds in its core lending business, with net interest income declining 4% year-on-year despite achieving loan and deposit growth. This decline was attributed to net interest margins compressing by 22 basis points to 1.93%. However, these challenges were partially offset by strong performance in fee-generating businesses, particularly wealth management, which surged 24% year-on-year and drove overall fee income growth of 14%. Key Positives: Strategic Pivot Toward Fee Income The bank's strategic pivot toward fee income generation has proven effective in cushioning the impact of declining net interest income. Wealth management fees led this transformation, supported by assets under management rising to S$488 billion, representing 15% year-on-year growth. This growth was driven by net new money inflows of S$12 billion in 4Q25, demonstrating strong demand for investment products as depositors shift from fixed deposits to wealth products. Additionally, investment banking fees surged 45% year-on-year, benefiting from increased debt and equity capital market activity, which indicates a revival in capital market sentiment and further diversifies DBS's earnings drivers beyond pure interest rate sensitivity. Research Recommendation and Outlook Phillip Securities Research has upgraded DBS to Accumulate from Neutral, raising the target price to S$60.00 from the previous S$58.00. The upgrade reflects expectations that non-interest income will serve as the main growth driver, with heightened market volatility benefiting trading income and continued wealth management growth. The research firm prefers DBS among Singapore banks due to its continued capital return plans until FY27, fixed dividend per share policy, and high dividend payout ratio, offering greater stability compared to peers following floating payout ratios. Frequently Asked Questions Q: What was DBS's dividend policy for FY25? A: DBS raised its 4Q25 dividend per share by 35% year-on-year to 81 cents, comprising 66 cents ordinary dividend and 15 cents capital return dividend, bringing total FY25 dividend per share to S$3.06, up 38% year-on-year. Q: How did DBS's net interest income perform? A: Net interest income fell 4% year-on-year despite loan and deposit growth, as net interest margins declined 22 basis points year-on-year to 1.93%. Q: Which business segments showed strong growth? A: Wealth management fees surged 24% year-on-year, driving 14% growth in fee income. Investment banking fees also increased 45% year-on-year from increased debt and equity capital market activity. Q: What is Phillip Securities Research's recommendation and target price? A: Phillip Securities Research upgraded DBS to Accumulate from Neutral with a higher target price of S$60.00, up from the previous S$58.00. Q: How did assets under management perform? A: Assets under management rose to S$488 billion, representing 15% year-on-year growth, driven by net new money inflows of S$12 billion for 4Q25. Q: What is DBS's guidance for FY26? A: DBS maintained its FY26 guidance for net interest income to be slightly below 2025 levels, non-interest income growth in the high single digits, credit costs to normalize at 17-20 basis points, and profit after tax and minority interests below 2025 levels due to the lower interest rate environment. Q: What makes DBS attractive compared to other Singapore banks? A: Phillip Securities Research prefers DBS due to its continued capital return plans until FY27, fixed dividend per share policy, and high dividend payout ratio, which offer greater stability compared to peers that follow floating payout ratios tied to earnings performance. Q: What are the expected dividend yields? A: The expected dividend yields are 5.7% for FY26e and 6.1% for FY27e, supported by DBS's capital return dividend policy and step-up policy maintained until 3Q26. This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst.    Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Stocks

Unveiling Opportunity: Exploring the Potential of European Equities

European markets have long been overshadowed by their U.S. counterparts, particularly the S&P 500, which commands global investor attention. However, this underappreciation masks the unique opportunities that European indices offer. Despite challenges such as geopolitical tensions and slower growth forecasts, European markets present compelling prospects for traders and investors. And importantly, 2025 was a reminder that “U.S. always leads” is not a permanent rule - major European benchmarks like the DAX outperformed the S&P 500 on the year, reinforcing the case for keeping Europe on the radar. To fully appreciate the potential of European equities, it’s essential to understand how to gain exposure to these markets, explore their key indices, and compare them to their U.S. counterparts like the S&P 500. Along the way, we’ll uncover why these indices deserve a place in your trading arsenal. Gaining Exposure to European Markets Through Indices One of the most efficient ways to access European equities broadly is through index trading. Unlike individual stocks, which require extensive research and carry higher idiosyncratic risk, indices offer diversified access to entire sectors or regions. For those interested in European markets, three key indices stand out: Euro Stoxx 50, CAC 40, and the DAX. These indices represent the largest and most liquid companies in their respective regions, making them ideal for traders seeking exposure to European equities. An Overview of Key European Indices Euro Stoxx 50: Often referred to as the "blue-chip" index of Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 comprises the 50 largest and most liquid companies across the Eurozone. Key constituents include multinational giants like ASML Holding (semiconductors), LVMH (luxury goods), and SAP (software). This index serves as a barometer for the health of the Eurozone economy. CAC 40: Representing France’s top-performing companies, the CAC 40 tracks the performance of 40 leading firms listed on Euronext Paris. Notable constituents include LVMH, Airbus, and BNP Paribas. The index is heavily influenced by the French economy, with a strong focus on luxury goods, energy, and financial services. DAX: Germany’s flagship index, the DAX, comprises of the 40 largest companies traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Heavyweights like Volkswagen, SAP, and Bayer dominate this index. As Europe’s largest economy, Germany’s industrial prowess heavily influences the DAX’s movements. How Do These Indices Compare to the S&P 500? Performance Year-over-Year (YoY) Over the past five years, the S&P 500 has often outperformed its European peers – particularly during U.S.-led tech-driven rallies. However, 2025 was a notable exception: European performance strengthened meaningfully, with Germany’s DAX and the Euro Stoxx 50 outperforming the S&P 500 on a full-year basis. According to latest data: S&P 500: The S&P 500 delivered a calendar-year 2025 total return of 17.88%.1 (For reference, S&P 500 price return in 2025 was 16.39%2 - the difference is dividends. Over a longer horizon, the S&P 500’s annualized total return over the last 10 years (2016-2025) works out to roughly ~14-15%3 per year (CAGR computed from yearly total returns). Euro Stoxx 50:The Eurozone’s Euro Stoxx 50 benchmark gained 22.1%4in 2025. CAC 40: France’s CAC 40 logged roughly a 10.4%5 gain in 2025, lagging other major European markets amid political turbulence and fiscal-debt concerns. DAX:Germany’s benchmark DAX rose 23.0%5 in 2025 - its best year since 2019, supported by policy support themes and a broader rotation into Europe. Source: tradingview.com Volatility Metrics Volatility is often best measured through implied volatility - the market’s priced-in expectation of how much an index may move in the near term. VIX is the benchmark for U.S. equities, derived from S&P 500 option prices. In Europe, the closest equivalent is VSTOXX, which reflects implied volatility on the Euro Stoxx 50, also sourced from the options market. Over the past five years, the most striking feature is high co-movement: major spikes and cooldowns broadly align, reflecting shared global “risk-on/risk-off” regimes. At the same time, the chart shows that volatility leadership rotates - there are stretches where U.S. implied volatility (VIX) prices higher than Europe, and periods where the gap narrows. In the chart below, the U.S. volatility series is represented by the VIX, while the European volatility series is represented using FVS1 (Eurex), a tradable VSTOXX futures contract. Source: tradingview.com Correlation Analysis Provided below are the correlations between the S&P 500 and the three European Indices (Euro Stoxx 50, CAC 40, and DAX) over 1-year and 5-year timeframes: Correlation is a statistical measure that describes how two stock indices move in relation to each other. It ranges from -1 to +1: +1: Perfect positive correlation (the two indices move in the same direction 100% of the time) 0: No correlation (the movements of the two indices are completely independent) -1: Perfect negative correlation (the two indices move in opposite directions 100% of the time) Leveraging Correlation Matrices for Strategic Trading Understanding correlation dynamics when trading global indices can unlock powerful strategies for risk management, trade timing, and identifying price divergences. Below are three key strategies traders can apply: 1. Pairs Trading: Profiting from Price Divergences Pairs trading involves taking simultaneous long and short positions in two correlated assets, betting that their relative price movements will revert to historical norms. The matrix highlights strong correlations between several European indices: Euro Stoxx 50 & CAC 40 (1-year: 0.95, 5-year: 0.96) Euro Stoxx 50 & DAX (1-year: 0.93, 5-year: 0.95) In these high-correlation pairs, significant price deviations can present trading opportunities. For example, if the Euro Stoxx 50 rallies while the CAC 40 lags, a trader might short the outperforming index and go long on the underperforming one, expecting the spread to close as correlation reverts prices to the mean. 2. Hedging Strategies: Mitigating Downside Risk Traders holding long positions in a particular index can hedge against potential downside risk by shorting a correlated index. The European indices have historically been highly correlated with each other: CAC 40 & DAX (1-year: 0.85, 5-year: 0.90) For instance, if a trader holds a long CAC 40 position but anticipates short-term volatility, shorting the DAX can offset potential losses, albeit imperfectly. 3. Expanding Entry Opportunities: Trading Low-Correlation Pairs Interestingly, lower correlations can also be advantageous, as they allow traders to capture independent price movements. When two indices have weak correlations, it increases the chance that both long and short trades can succeed independently, rather than offsetting each other: S&P 500 & DAX (1-year: 0.26, 5-year: 0.45) S&P 500 & Euro Stoxx 50 (1-year: 0.29, 5-year: 0.47) For example, a trader could go long on the S&P 500 and short the DAX, without the positions cancelling each other out. Success would depend more on each index’s individual price action, creating dual profit potential rather than a zero-sum outcome. Advantages of Trading European Indices Trading European indices offers several distinct advantages: 1. Active European Trading Hours European indices are most active during European trading hours (3:00 PM to 11:30 PM SGT), a period when US markets tend to be less volatile. This creates opportunities for traders to capitalise on price movements and news-driven events during these hours. 2. Leveraging Diverse Correlations for Strategic Flexibility The varied correlation levels between European indices and the S&P 500 provide traders with multiple strategic opportunities: high-correlation pairs (such as Euro Stoxx 50 & CAC 40) enable pairs trading and hedging strategies, helping traders mitigate risks by balancing long and short positions. low-correlation pairs (such as S&P 500 & FTSE MIB) allow traders to capture independent price movements, increasing the potential for profiting from both long and short positions simultaneously. 3. Increased Volatility The higher volatility in European indices, compared to the S&P 500, offers more frequent trading opportunities for those employing short-term strategies. Higher volatility means larger price swings, which can translate into greater profit potential for active traders who time their entries and exits effectively. Conclusion: Why European Indices Belong in Your Trading Arsenal Incorporating European indices into your trading strategy could enhance potential returns through increased volatility, opportunities arising from varying market correlations and exposure to distinct economic events happening in the European markets. Whether you’re capitalising on early-morning price action or executing pairs trades, understanding the intricacies and nuances of these European indices, traders can potentially unlock additional avenues for profit. Don't let the spotlight on US markets overshadow the untapped potential of European indices. Trade European Index CFDs on POEMS Unlock the potential of European equity markets with index CFDs on POEMS. Whether you're looking to diversify your portfolio, capitalise on market volatility, or hedge against US market movements, European index CFDs offer a dynamic way to trade. With POEMS, you can gain exposure to key European indices like the Euro Stoxx 50, CAC 40 and DAX through our European index CFDs—all with competitive trading conditions and a seamless trading experience. Learn more here Start trading European Index CFDs on POEMS today and explore new market opportunities. For enquiries, please email us at cfd@phillip.com.sg. References: [1] https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_total_return_annual [2] https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns [3] https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns [4] https://stoxx.com/stoxx-dax-etfs-get-record-inflows-as-sentiment-on-european-equities-improves/ [5] https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/european-shares-set-best-year-since-2021-2025-12-31/ Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. 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CFDs

Elite UK REIT Shows Strong Performance with Successful Lease Regearing

Company Overview Elite UK REIT is a real estate investment trust focused on UK commercial properties, with a significant portfolio concentration in assets leased to the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP). The REIT manages a diversified property portfolio valued at £424.6 million, comprising large, medium, and smaller-sized commercial assets across the United Kingdom. Strong Financial Performance Driven by Strategic Initiatives Elite UK REIT delivered impressive results for the second half and full year 2025, with distribution per unit (DPU) reaching 1.49 pence for 2H25 and 3.03 pence for FY25, representing year-over-year growth of 1.4% and 5.6% respectively.The full-year DPU met Phillip Securities Research’s FY25 forecast, while the 2H25 contribution accounted for 49% of the projected total. The growth was primarily attributed to interest savings from a reduced cost of debt, which decreased from 4.9% in FY24 to 4.7% in FY25, alongside contributions from newly acquired assets. These factors contributed to a substantial 7.4% year-over-year increase in distributable income, reaching £18.3 million in FY25. Major Lease Regearing Success Addresses Key Risk The REIT achieved a significant milestone by successfully regearing approximately 70% of its DWP portfolio, representing £24.3 million in rent, well ahead of the 2028 lease expiry deadline. This strategic accomplishment increased the weighted average lease expiry (WALE) dramatically from 2.4 years to 7.2 years, with leases primarily regeared for longer tenors of 7 and 10 years. The regeared leases feature CPI-linked rent reviews scheduled for 2033, with compounded annual rent increases ranging between 1% and 5% and notably contain no lease break clauses. Additionally, the Peel Park asset received planning approval for data centre facility use, potentially unlocking significant divestment value. Investment Recommendation and Outlook Phillip Securities Research upgraded Elite UK REIT to BUY with a higher target price of S$0.41, increased from the previous S$0.39, based on a dividend discount model approach. The REIT offers an attractive FY26 dividend yield of approximately 8.9%, considerably higher than the broader S-REITs market distribution yield of around 6% in 2025. A potential upside catalyst includes a DPU-accretive divestment of Peel Park, which currently represents approximately 10% of the total portfolio value and stands as the largest asset by value. Key Takeaways Q: What drove Elite UK REIT's improved financial performance in FY25? A: The 5.6% year-over-year growth in FY25 DPU was driven by interest savings from a lower cost of debt (decreasing from 4.9% to 4.7%) and contributions from newly acquired assets, resulting in 7.4% growth in distributable income to £18.3 million. Q: How successful was the lease regearing with DWP? A: Elite successfully regeared around 70% of the DWP portfolio representing £24.3 million in rent, significantly ahead of the 2028 lease expiry. This increased WALE from 2.4 years to 7.2 years with leases regeared for 7 and 10-year tenors. Q: What is Phillip Securities Research's recommendation and target price? A: Phillip Securities Research upgraded Elite UK REIT to BUY with a target price of S$0.41, increased from the previous S$0.39, based on a dividend discount model approach. Q: How does Elite's dividend yield compare to the broader market? A: Elite offers an FY26 dividend yield of approximately 8.9%, which is considerably higher than the S-REITs market distribution yield of around 6% in 2025. Q: What are the key features of the regeared leases? A: The regeared leases have no break clauses, feature CPI-linked rent reviews in 2033 with compounded annual rent increases of 1-5% and include renewal options for DWP extending leases by five years for 2035 expiries and three years for earlier expiries. Q: What potential upside catalyst exists for the REIT? A: A potential DPU-accretive divestment of Peel Park, which represents approximately 10% of total portfolio value and is the largest asset by value, especially after receiving planning approval for data centre facility use. Q: How did the portfolio valuation perform? A: The latest portfolio valuation showed an uplift of approximately 2% year-over-year to £424.6 million, with 72% of large assets appreciating in value and 43% delivering double-digit valuation gains, offsetting declines in smaller assets. This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst.   Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. 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Stocks

Alphabet Posts Strong Q4 Results with Record Cloud Growth

Company Overview Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google, operates as a leading technology conglomerate with core business segments spanning search advertising, YouTube, and cloud computing services. The company's primary revenue drivers include Google Search, YouTube advertising, and Google Cloud Platform (GCP), positioning it as a dominant player in the digital advertising and cloud infrastructure markets. Q4 2025 Financial Performance Exceeds Expectations Alphabet reported impressive fourth-quarter 2025 results that surpassed analyst forecasts, with total revenue climbing 18% year-over-year to US$114 billion and net income surging 30% to US$34.5 billion. The robust performance was primarily driven by strong execution across both advertising and cloud segments, with full-year revenue and net income reaching 97% and 108% of forecasted levels, respectively. Core Business Segments Drive Growth The company's advertising business demonstrated remarkable resilience, with Google Search revenue posting its fastest growth in four years at 17% year-over-year to US$63 billion. This acceleration was fuelled by retail vertical strength and enhanced ad efficiency through Gemini 3 integration. YouTube advertising revenue maintained solid momentum with 9% growth to US$11.4 billion, supported by increased political advertising spending during the election period and continued expansion of Shorts and Living Room monetisation. Cloud Business Achieves Milestone Growth Google Cloud delivered exceptional results, recording its fastest revenue growth since 2021 with a 48% year-over-year increase to US$17.7 billion, establishing an annual run rate exceeding US$70 billion. This outstanding performance was underpinned by a doubled client base, significant large-scale customer commitments with billion-dollar deals surpassing the previous three years combined, and existing customers expanding usage by over 30% beyond initial contracts. Revenue from GenAI-based products experienced explosive growth of nearly 400% year-over-year. Research Recommendation and Outlook Phillip Securities Research downgraded Alphabet to an ACCUMULATE rating following recent price appreciation but raised the DCF target price to US$395 from US$340. The revised valuation reflects confidence in Alphabet's competitive positioning through continuous Gemini upgrades and AI integration capabilities. Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, analysts project advertising segment growth of approximately 16% year-over-year, while the cloud segment is expected to maintain strong momentum with anticipated 45% growth. Key Takeaways Q: What were Alphabet's key financial highlights for Q4 2025? A: Alphabet reported revenue of US$114 billion (up 18% YoY) and net income of US$34.5 billion (up 30% YoY), with performance exceeding expectations across both advertising and cloud segments. Q: How did Google's advertising business perform? A: Google Search revenue grew 17% YoY to US$63 billion, marking the fastest growth in four years, while YouTube advertising revenue increased 9% YoY to US$11.4 billion, driven by retail vertical strength and election-related spending. Q: What drove Google Cloud's exceptional performance? A: Cloud revenue surged 48% YoY to $17.7 billion, driven by a doubled client base, billion-dollar deals exceeding the previous three years combined, and existing customers expanding usage by over 30% beyond initial commitments. Q: How significant was GenAI revenue growth? A: Revenue from GenAI-based products grew nearly 400% year-over-year in Q4 2025, compared to 200% growth in the previous quarter, demonstrating strong monetisation of AI capabilities. Q: What is Phillip Securities Research's recommendation and target price? A: The firm downgraded Alphabet to ACCUMULATE due to recent price performance but raised the target price to US$395 from US$340, citing confidence in the company's AI integration and competitive positioning. Q: What are the growth projections for fiscal 2026? A: Analysts forecast advertising segment growth of approximately 16% year-over-year and cloud segment growth of 45% year-over-year for fiscal 2026. Q: What factors support the cloud business outlook? A: The cloud segment is supported by strong demand, Alphabet's ability to monetise its GenAI portfolio, expanding operating margins, and a cloud backlog that grew 55% sequentially to US$240 billion. This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst. This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst.    Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. 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Stocks

AMD Posts Strong Q4 Results on Clear GPU Roadmap, Rising CPU Demand

Company Overview Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) is a leading semiconductor company that designs and manufactures high-performance computing processors, graphics processing units (GPUs), and related technologies. The company serves multiple markets including data centres, personal computers, gaming, and artificial intelligence applications, competing directly with industry giants like Intel and Nvidia. Strong Financial Performance Drives Upgrade AMD's fourth quarter 2025 results exceeded expectations, with revenue meeting forecasts at 100% of projected levels while profit after tax and minority interest (PATMI) surpassed expectations at 112% of forecasts. This outperformance was primarily driven by robust sales of Instinct MI350 series GPUs and EPYC CPUs. The company's data centre segment emerged as the primary growth driver, with revenue accelerating 39% year-over-year to US$5.4 billion, representing 52% of total quarterly revenue compared to 47% in the previous quarter. Investment Merits and Future Outlook AMD's strategic positioning in the data center market appears particularly compelling. Management expressed confidence in achieving annual data center segment revenue growth exceeding 60% over the next three to five years, supported by strength in both Instinct GPU and EPYC CPU product roadmaps. The company's GPU development timeline shows clear progression, with MI400 series GPUs and Helios products scheduled to ramp in the second half of 2026, followed by MI500 series GPUs featuring advanced 2nm-process technology and HBM4E memory launching in 2027. Margin Expansion and Market Share Gains The higher proportion of data centre revenue drove significant margin expansion, with gross and net margins increasing 360 and 130 basis points year-over-year respectively. Data centre operating margins reached 32.6%, the highest level since the first quarter of 2022. AMD continued gaining server CPU market share from Intel, whose performance was constrained by supply issues. The client PC segment also maintained momentum with ten consecutive quarters of growth, achieving 34% year-over-year revenue increase to US$3.1 billion. Research Recommendation Based on these strong fundamentals and clear growth trajectory, Phillip Securities Research upgraded AMD to BUY from ACCUMULATE, maintaining a target price of US$280. The upgrade reflects confidence in AMD's competitive positioning and execution capabilities across both GPU and CPU product lines. Key Takeaways Q: What were AMD's key financial highlights for Q4 2025? A: AMD's Q4 2025 revenue met expectations at 100% of forecasts, while PATMI exceeded expectations at 112% of projections. Data center revenue grew 39% year-over-year to $5.4 billion, representing 52% of total quarterly revenue. Q: What is AMD's growth outlook for the data center segment? A: AMD expects to grow data center segment revenue by more than 60% annually over the next 3-5 years, driven by strength in its Instinct GPU and EPYC CPU roadmap. Q: What new GPU products does AMD have planned? A: AMD's GPU roadmap includes MI400 series GPUs and Helios ramping in the second half of 2026, followed by MI500 series GPUs with advanced 2nm-process technology and HBM4E memory launching in 2027. Q: How did AMD's margins perform in Q4 2025? A: Gross and net margins increased 360 and 130 basis points year-over-year respectively, driven by higher MI350 GPU sales and increased data center revenue mix. Data center operating margins reached 32.6%, the highest since Q1 2022. Q: What is Phillip Securities Research’s recommendation? A: Phillip Securities Research upgraded AMD to BUY from ACCUMULATE while maintaining the target price at US$280, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory and competitive positioning. Q: How did AMD's client PC business perform? A: Client PC revenue rose 34% year-over-year to $3.1 billion, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of growth. Ryzen CPU sell-through grew by more than 40% year-over-year with major customer wins across multiple industries. Q: What contributed to AMD's market share gains? A: AMD gained server CPU market share from Intel, whose performance was constrained by supply issues. In the data center, hyperscalers like AWS and Google launched more than 230 new AMD instances compared to 100 instances in the previous year. Q: Were there any notable regional sales? A: Yes, AMD recorded US$390 million of MI308 sales to China, representing 4% of Q4 2025 revenue, which was previously not included in company guidance. This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst.    Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. 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Stocks

First REIT Faces Currency Headwinds Despite Stable Operations

Financial Performance Overview First REIT (FIRT) reported its 2H25/FY25 distribution per unit (DPU) results of 1.04 and 2.17 Singapore cents representing declines of 10.3% and 8.1% year-on-year respectively. Theese figures were in line with market expectations, accounting for 48% and 100% of FY25 forecasts. The year-on-year decline was primarily attributed to the depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) and Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Singapore Dollar, though this was partially mitigated by increased local-currency rental income and reduced finance costs. Strategic Developments and Portfolio Changes FIRT completed the divestment of its non-core Imperial Aryaduta Hotel & Country Club (IAHCC) on December 4, 2025. Following the redemption of S$33.3 million of 4.9817% subordinated securities in January 2026, FIRT eliminated all perpetual securities from its capital structure. Excluding the IAHCC divestment, portfolio valuations declined 6.2% year-on-year, primarily due to foreign exchange depreciation in IDR and JPY. Investment Recommendation and Outlook Phillip Securities Research maintains its ACCUMULATE rating for First REIT with a revised target price of S$0.29, down from the previous S$0.31. This adjustment reflects updated dividend discount model forecasts that account for weaker IDR and JPY currencies, as well as the IAHCC divestment impact. FY26 and FY27 DPU estimates have been reduced by 5% and 8% respectively to incorporate these factors. Business Fundamentals and Market Position First REIT continues to operate as a healthcare-focused real estate investment trust with assets primarily in Indonesia, Singapore, and Japan. The company continues to benefit from a base 4.5% rental escalation across its Indonesia portfolio, with three Indonesian hospitals now operating under performance-based rent structures. A strategic review regarding Siloam's potential acquisition of FIRT's Indonesian hospital assets remains ongoing without material updates. Financial Strength Indicators FIRT demonstrated stable capital management with its cost of debt declining by 50 basis points year-on-year to 4.5%. Gearing and interest coverage ratios remained healthy at 42.1% and 3.7x respectively. FIRT trades at an FY26 estimated DPU yield of 8.4% and is currently in discussions to extend and refinance S$260 million of loans maturing in 2026. Key Takeaways Q: What was First REIT's DPU performance for 2H25/FY25? A: First REIT reported 2H25/FY25 DPU of 1.04/2.17 Singapore cents, representing declines of 10.3% and 8.1% year-on-year respectively, primarily due to IDR and JPY depreciation against the SGD. Q: What is Phillip Securities Research's current recommendation and target price? A: Phillip Securities Research maintains an ACCUMULATE rating with a revised target price of S$0.29, reduced from the previous S$0.31 due to weaker currency forecasts and the IAHCC divestment. Q: What major asset divestment did First REIT complete recently? A: First REIT completed the divestment of the non-core Imperial Aryaduta Hotel & Country Club (IAHCC) on December 4, 2025. Q: How did different geographical segments perform in local currency terms? A: FY25 income from Indonesia and Singapore properties rose by 5.1% and 2.0% respectively in local currency terms, while Japan remained stable. Q: What are the key financial health indicators for First REIT? A: The REIT maintains healthy financials with gearing at 42.1%, interest coverage ratio at 3.7x, and cost of debt at 4.5% (down 50bps year-on-year). Q: What is the status of rental payments from MPU? A: Rentals continue to be owed by MPU, with S$6.9 million outstanding as of December 31, 2025. S$1.5 million was received in January 2026, reducing the outstanding amount to S$5.4 million. Q: How did portfolio valuations perform excluding the IAHCC divestment?< A: On a same-store basis, portfolio valuations declined 6.2% year-on-year, primarily due to foreign exchange headwinds, with the Indonesia portfolio rising 1.4% in local currency terms while Japan declined 0.7%. Q: What is First REIT's current dividend yield? A: First REIT trades at an FY26 estimated DPU yield of 8.4%. This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst.    Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. 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The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.