Downtrend
A downtrend, in general, is a term that indicates the downward movement of a stock price from its previous state. A downtrend is always shown with the help of lower troughs and lower peaks over a specific period. Uptrends and downtrends experience fluctuations and are interchangeable.
Table of Contents
What Is Downtrend?
A downtrend is a condition when the movement of stock shifts or alters to a lower price from a specific price. Analysts always use stock charts to study the downtrend and how the stock shifts from upward to downward. This is useful for traders, as when they see a declining trend, the traders may sell the stock. Meanwhile, other traders can profit while purchasing stock at an affordable price.
Understanding and Identifying Downtrends
There are various forms of technical analysis that you can use to understand and identify downtrends. Trend lines are the simplest ways to learn about a downtrend.
Technical indicators can also help traders understand and identify downtrends. Identifying uptrends is quite important, but understanding downtrends is the ultimate way to save your hard-earned money.
A simple way to identify downtrends is by using trend lines. These lines connect a series of low or high points, and their reversal will indicate an uptrend.
Likewise, stock charts can be used to identify downtrends. Here, you can use the moving average technical indicator that takes the mean of prices over a specific period. So, when the stock price stays below the moving average, it indicates that there is a downtrend.
Trading on a Downtrend
There are stock traders who concentrate only on a specific stock. Here, they sell the stock as they see a further price decrease in the future too. Meanwhile, there are traders who hope to see the stock price increase, and this is why they buy declining stocks. This, in turn, offers new opportunities and attractive valuation for the traders looking to buy declining stocks in times of a downtrend.
Also, there are many traders who prefer short-selling in order to earn a profit.
In case the prices fall further after the stock is sold, the traders purchase the stock to return the outstanding shares. The profit gained by the short-selling stock trader is the difference between the new and old stock prices.
Example of a Prolonged Downtrend (with Chart)
Prolonged downtrends mean that the prices of the stocks are constantly decreasing, which are indicated by the lower peaks and the lower troughs. When the stock price keeps on falling over a long period of time, it is an indicator of the negative sentiment of the market. When there is a crash or correction in the stock market, the condition that prevails is known as economic contraction. When there is an immediate increase in the economic contraction, it will directly impact unemployment (high) and customer spending (low).
What Reverses a Downtrend?
The downtrend is often a condition when lower lows and lower highs are indicated in the stock chart. The downside impulse waves and small corrective waves are other signs of downtrends. When these signs are violated or reversed, the downtrend also reverses. When the lower highs and lower lows are transformed into higher highs and higher lows, the condition transforms from a downtrend to uptrend.
Frequently Asked Questions
Uptrends and downtrends are important for the traders to profitably trade in the stock market. It is easy to sell or purchase stocks to make money when you know how to identify them. An uptrend always indicates higher lows and highs, and the connecting series always slopes upward. On the other hand, a downtrend always represents lower lows and lower highs, and the connecting series always slopes downward.
When two or more high points are connected, and the resulting straight line moves downward, the condition is called a downtrend line. Generally, the downtrend line indicates the combination of lower bottoms and lower tops to form a straight line.
You can confirm a downtrend from the stock chart if each correction wave and impulse contain lower highs and lower lows. There is no specific time for a downtrend. It can appear for years, days, and even minutes. When the trend lines start to descend, the condition is always known as a downtrend.
If you’re using technical analysis and stock charts to identify the downtrend time, there are many patterns like the length of lower highs and lower lows that indicate that the stock prices are falling. The downtrend can last from months to years, depending on the price range, time frame, and other trends.
Many signs indicate that there is a downtrend reversal. When the patterns in the trends are altered, and there is a shift from lower highs and lower lows to higher highs and higher lows, the chances are that there is a downtrend reversal. By identifying the downtrend reversal, it is easy to trade stocks to earn profit.
Related Terms
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Snowflake Inc – Growth from Rising Coding and AI Agent Activities
Brief Overview Phillip Securities Research highlights that rising enterprise data volumes and AI adoption are accelerating cloud-native platform adoption, with the global data lake market projected to reach US$45.8 billion by 2030. AI products contributed roughly half of 2Q27 growth acceleration, with CoCo and CoWork surpassing 9,100 and 5,800 adopted accounts respectively, helping drive 37% YoY product revenue growth. The firm initiates coverage with a BUY recommendation and DCF-based target price of US$423. Investment Positives The investment case for Snowflake is anchored on several compelling growth drivers. Rising enterprise data volumes and AI adoption are accelerating the shift from on-premises infrastructure to cloud-native data platforms. Enterprises increasingly require scalable, cost-efficient storage and compute capabilities to manage growing datasets and support AI workloads, driving demand for modern data architectures. IBM estimates the global data lake market will reach US$45.8 billion by 2030, representing a 23.9% CAGR from 2024, supporting a sizeable long-term growth opportunity for Snowflake. AI products are proving to be a significant catalyst, contributing roughly half of growth acceleration in 2Q27. This was driven by the rising adoption of CoCo and CoWork, with over 9,100 and 5,800 adopted accounts respectively. Expanding AI coding, agent, and application development workloads helped drive 37% YoY product revenue growth to US$1.5 billion in 2Q27 and contributed to Snowflake's strongest revenue growth in three years. The consumption-based model provides significant leverage to AI adoption. With 95% of revenue being consumption-based, usage is directly linked to revenue. Growing analytics and AI workloads drive higher compute usage, with AI being far more compute-intensive than traditional analytics. Growth is driven by both new customers and higher consumption from existing customers. Customers purchase credits upfront and consume them as workloads run, whilst higher-value products drive greater usage, credit consumption, and spending. Challenges The report does not explicitly outline specific investment challenges or risks facing Snowflake. Outlook The analyst forecasts strong growth momentum, projecting product revenue to grow 36% YoY to US$6.08 billion in FY27e, with adjusted EPS rising 63% YoY and an adjusted FCF margin of 23.8%. The consumption-based revenue model directly links AI-driven compute usage to revenue growth as customers consume more credits and increase spending on higher-value workloads. Recommendation & Target Price Phillip Securities Research initiates coverage with a BUY recommendation and a DCF-based target price of US$423, based on a 5.7% WACC and 5.1% terminal growth rate. Frequently Asked Questions [market_journal_faq] This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
City Developments Limited Charts Clear Growth Path with Strategic Overhaul
Brief Overview City Developments Limited has unveiled its 'GET+' three-year roadmap for FY27-FY29, positioning Singapore as its core market while executing a major exit from Australia across all sectors except hospitality assets. The strategic review targets S$5 billion of growth investments and S$6 billion of divestments to unlock value and achieve deleveraging goals. The company aims to establish a dedicated fund management platform to double assets under management to S$10 billion across listed and private platforms. Investment Positives The strategic review delivers several compelling growth drivers that strengthen CDL's investment proposition. The roadmap provides greater clarity on capital allocation priorities and establishes a credible path to deleveraging, addressing a key concern for investors. The S$6 billion divestment programme represents a significant value unlock opportunity, with over S$1bn billion of profit after tax and minority interests expected from divestment gains, equivalent to approximately S$1.12 per share. The monetisation strategy is well-diversified, comprising S$2.7 billion in commercial assets, S$1.8 billion in hotels, and S$1 billion in residential properties across the UK and Australia. CDL's fund management expansion offers particularly attractive prospects for sustainable growth. The dedicated fund management entity aims to double assets under management from S$5 billion to S$10 billion by FY29, encompassing both listed REIT platforms and an expanded private capital platform through funds, partnerships and joint ventures. This initiative supports a more capital-light growth model whilst building a recurring fee income stream and improving capital efficiency, potentially supporting higher return on equity over time. The company's development pipeline remains robust, with over S$6 billion of projected property development cash inflows from existing projects providing additional financial strength. The growth investment strategy is geographically focused, with 60% allocated to Singapore, 30% to China and Japan, and 10% to other markets across residential, commercial, hospitality and living sectors. Outlook The strategic review establishes four key financial targets that define CDL's trajectory through FY29. The company aims to achieve a dividend payout of at least 35% of reported profit after tax and minority interests annually, whilst reducing net gearing from 75% as at 1H26 to 55% by FY29. The divestment programme targeting over S$1 billion of profit realisation, combined with the doubling of assets under management, positions the company for enhanced capital efficiency and sustainable growth. Recommendation & Target Price Phillip Securities Research maintains a BUY recommendation with an unchanged RNAV target price of S$11.32, representing a 25% discount to the RNAV of S$15.09. No changes have been made to existing forecasts following the strategic review announcement. Frequently Asked Questions [market_journal_faq] This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Event: Phillip Securities Research Monday Morning Call Executive Summary Phillip Securities Research conducted their weekly Monday Morning Call, covering key market developments including a new Snowflake initiation, VinFast site visit findings, SPL Lifestyle credit update, and comprehensive technical analysis of major indices. The session provided insights into AI-driven data platforms, electric vehicle manufacturing, and current market conditions amid rising interest rates. Snowflake Initiation: Riding the AI Data Wave Target Price: US$423 (26% upside potential) Rating: Buy Company Overview Snowflake operates as a leading AI data cloud platform, helping enterprises transition from traditional on-premise infrastructure to scalable, cloud-native solutions. The company serves large-scale customers managing hundreds of petabytes of data across various industries. Key Investment Thesis 1. Rising Data Volumes: The shift to cloud storage is accelerating as businesses digitise operations and adopt AI technologies 2. AI Product Momentum: Snowflake Cortex and Snowflake Copilot are driving significant adoption, contributing roughly half of recent quarter growth acceleration 3. Consumption-Based Model: Unlike traditional SaaS companies, 95% of Snowflake's revenue comes from usage-based billing, directly benefiting from increased AI adoption Financial Highlights Revenue Growth: 35% year-over-year in recent quarter (strongest in 3 years) Customer Growth: 32% increase in new customers year-over-year Gross Margin: Maintained at 68% despite aggressive computing investments Cash Position: Strong balance sheet with US$4.3 billion in cash and investments Risk Factors Competition from hyperscalers (AWS Redshift, Microsoft Fabric, Google BigQuery) Consumption model sensitivity to economic conditions Potential AI spending normalisation in the long term VinFast Auto: Site Visit Insights Key Findings from Factory and Dealership Visits Domestic Dominance vs. International Challenges VinFast maintains strong market position in Vietnam due to comprehensive ecosystem advantages, including charging infrastructure, dealer networks, and taxi fleet integration. However, overseas expansion faces significant headwinds from established Chinese competitors like BYD. Manufacturing Capabilities Car Production: Highly automated facilities comparable to scaled-down BYD operations Scooter Manufacturing: Manual assembly process for millions of units annually Robotaxi Development: Early-stage autonomous vehicle programme using hybrid camera-LiDAR approach Market Dynamics Positive Factors: Strong domestic brand loyalty and patriotic consumer preference Rising fuel prices driving EV adoption Comprehensive charging infrastructure Challenges: Scale disadvantage: 23 times smaller than BYD (4.6 million vs 200 thousand units) High financing costs: 10% first-year interest rates, 15-18% floating rates Limited international competitiveness outside Vietnam SPL Lifestyle: Credit Profile Update Following 5-Year Bond Issuance Business Segments 1. Jewelry & Luxury Retail: Poh Heng, Goldheart, Maxi Cash brands 2. Pawn Broking: Operations in Singapore and Malaysia 3. Secured Lending: Property-backed lending in Australia via BigFundr platform Credit Improvements EBITDA Growth: 45% increase to US$106 million, driven by retail margin expansion Interest Coverage: Improved from 4.3x to 6.5x Leverage Reduction: Debt-to-tangible equity declined from 3.1x to 2.2x Key Considerations Liquidity Concern: US$83 million cash vs. US$567 million short-term borrowings Gold Price Sensitivity: Inventory positioned 30-40% below prevailing gold prices Refinancing Requirements: Significant short-term borrowing rollover needed Technical Analysis: Market Outlook S&P 500 Recent Performance: Up 1.2% last week Technical Setup: Breakout from August wedge consolidation Support Levels: 7,655-7,700 (trend line and 20 SMA) Resistance: 7,780-7,820 (upper Bollinger Band to previous high) STI Index Performance: Down 5.4% month-to-date Technical Indicators: Oversold RSI at 27.5, overextended ADX above 40 Support: 956-972 area Resistance: 985-995 region Fed Rate Hike Analysis Historical data shows equity markets generally remain resilient during rate hike cycles: Initial 3-month period typically sees modest drawdowns (avg. -1.1%) 12-month performance averages +4.1% following rate hike initiation Gradual hiking cycles outperform aggressive ones by 9.3% over 12 months Singapore Market Weekly Update Population Growth Current trajectory tracking slightly below 2013 White Paper projections Average annual increase of 100,000 over past three years (vs. 30,000 pre-pandemic) Supporting domestic consumption sectors Interest Rate Environment October rate hike probability increased to 70% (from 50%) Singapore banks positioned differently from US counterparts due to rate cycle timing REITs expected to remain under pressure in near term Frequently Asked Questions [market_journal_faq] *Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Please consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. * This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Phillip Securities Research Morning Call: Market Updates and Strategic Outlook – 5 Oct 2026
The latest Phillip Securities Research Morning Call provided comprehensive insights into market developments, featuring updates on Micron's quarterly results, CDL's strategic review, technical analysis of major indices, and Singapore's economic indicators. The session highlighted both opportunities and challenges across various sectors and geographies. Micron Shows Promising Signs with Strategic Customer Agreements Micron Technology delivered fourth-quarter results that met expectations, with revenue and earnings driven primarily by rising average selling prices (ASPs) for both DRAM and NAND memory products amid ongoing shortage conditions. The most significant development was Micron's announcement of 10 new Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs), bringing the total to 26 agreements expected to exceed 35% of revenue through 2030. These SCAs represent a marked improvement over previous long-term contracts, featuring stricter terms including "take or pay" contracted volumes requiring 20% deposits and price floors to mitigate future downcycles. This structure should provide greater revenue stability and earnings predictability for the memory giant. However, Micron also announced higher capital expenditure guidance for the first half of fiscal 2025, representing more than 60% of previous guidance. Management justified this increase as necessary to meet customer demand through facility expansions in the US, Singapore, and Taiwan. Looking ahead, Micron anticipates substantial share repurchases starting 9 December, as the two-year CHIPS Act restriction period expires. The company plans to return 100% of excess cash through buybacks, potentially totaling US$70 billion based on current projections, which could boost earnings per share by approximately 6%. CDL's Strategic Review Faces Market Scepticism City Developments Limited (CDL) unveiled its "GET Plus" strategy, a three-year plan focusing on four core sectors: residential, commercial, hospitality, and living. The strategy involves US$5 billion in growth investments and US$6 billion in divestments for capital recycling and deleveraging. Key objectives include maintaining dividend payouts above 35% of reported earnings, reducing leverage to 55% by FY2029 from current levels of 75%, and doubling assets under management from US$5 billion to US$10 billion. The company expects to unlock over US$1 billion in divestment gains from the planned asset sales. Despite these ambitious plans, CDL's share price declined 15% following the announcement. Market scepticism stems from the lack of detailed financial outcomes, absence of specific ROE targets, and limited visibility on the financial benefits of the strategy. Unlike comparable strategic reviews by peers like Hong Kong Land, CDL's plan was perceived as less concrete and execution-dependent. The geographic focus remains on Singapore as the core market, with plans to gradually exit Australia except for hospitality assets. Of CDL's 54 owned hotels valued at US$8.6 billion, management categorised 60% as core assets to retain, 20% for enhancement through asset improvement or redevelopment, and 20% (US$1.8 billion) for divestment. Strong Singapore Economic Data Signals Recovery Singapore's economic indicators showed remarkable strength, with the PMI reaching its highest level in almost eight years and accelerating from the previous month. The banking sector demonstrated exceptional loan growth of 13.5%, representing a record acceleration and doubling the 6% growth from a year ago. This robust loan growth, driven primarily by data centers, technology, energy, renewables, and acquisition financing, provides banks with both volume increases and pricing power as SORA rates turn positive year-over-year. Manufacturing remains the fastest-growing loan segment, while housing and consumer loans maintain stable mid-single-digit growth rates. The strong economic momentum in Singapore contrasts with challenges elsewhere, as semiconductor exports from Korea continued robust growth at 26.3% in September, indicating sustained demand in the technology sector. Technical Analysis Points to Cautious Optimism The S&P 500 showed resilience despite a slight 0.2% decline last week, holding key support at 5,655 around the gap-fill level and 20-day moving average. The index maintained its breakout above a wedge consolidation pattern, with Friday's gap higher suggesting continued underlying strength. Historical analysis of weak market breadth conditions provides encouragement. When less than 25% of S&P 500 constituents trade above their 50-day moving averages – a condition that occurred on 20 September – markets have historically performed well afterward, averaging 1.8% gains one week later and nearly 16% a year later. September proved challenging across most asset classes, with only Bitcoin ETFs posting gains (+5.4%) while gold ETFs declined 6.7%. October expectations remain muted, with most assets likely to consolidate sideways, though gold, Singapore equities, and the Hang Seng Index may extend their weakness. EQDP Program Shows Structural Impact on Small-Mid Caps The Equity Development Partnership Program (EQDP) continues demonstrating its structural catalyst effect on Singapore's small and mid-cap stocks. Since the program's announcement in February, dedicated Singapore equity funds have grown five-fold from US$1 billion to US$5 billion by August, with OCBC's fund expanding most dramatically from US$200 million to US$2 billion. The program has also increased institutional participation, with more small-mid cap stocks achieving 5% institutional stakes. While recent performance has been mixed, the historical pattern shows strong outperformance typically occurs 6-12 months after fund allocation rather than immediately following announcements. Sector Outlook: Semiconductors and Oil & Gas Favored For attractive EQDP allocation targets, analysts favor the semiconductor sector, noting the upcycle only began in early 2024 when TSMC raised capital expenditure. Singapore semiconductor companies are just beginning to show earnings improvement from this cycle, suggesting continued momentum ahead. The oil and gas sector also presents opportunities due to expected capital expenditure increases driven by high oil prices and energy security concerns. However, the construction sector faces headwinds from elevated diesel prices related to Middle East conflicts, though private sector demand shows signs of strengthening with contract awards up 25% year-to-date through July. Frequently Asked Questions [market_journal_faq] This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Micron Technology Strengthens Position with Strategic Customer Agreements
Brief Overview Micron Technology reported strong fourth-quarter 2026 results with revenue and adjusted PATMI within expectations, driven by a dramatic surge in memory pricing. The company secured 10 new strategic customer agreements during the quarter and provided an optimistic outlook for memory market conditions. Phillip Securities Research maintains a BUY recommendation with a raised target price. Investment Positives Micron's strategic positioning has strengthened significantly through new customer agreements. The company signed 26 Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs) to date, up from 16 in the third quarter of 2026, which management guided to represent over 35% of revenue through 2030. These agreements feature much stricter terms than previous long-term contracts, including cash deposits and take-or-pay contracted volumes with price floors. Two SCAs were extended by a year to 2031, demonstrating customer commitment to long-term supply security. The financial impact of these agreements is substantial. Remaining performance obligations rose to approximately US$150 billion from US$100 billion in the third quarter, representing 13% higher than FY26 revenue. Financial commitments increased 45% to US$32 billion from US$22 billion, with the majority consisting of cash deposits. Memory pricing has surged dramatically, driving exceptional profitability. DRAM and NAND average selling prices spiked by an estimated 232% and 383% year-on-year respectively, propelling fourth-quarter 2026 net profit up more than 10-fold to US$38.4 billion. Gross and net margins reached record levels of 87% and 71% respectively, compared to 85% and 70% in the previous quarter. Supply constraints are expected to persist, supporting pricing strength. Cleanroom space across the industry remains constrained, as new fabrication facility expansions typically require 2-4 years to complete. Management expects memory and storage conditions to be "much tighter" in 2027 and 2028 than the current year, with hyperscalers and high-end processor chip companies prioritising memory supply security through 2031 with approximately 20% cash deposits. Challenges The report does not explicitly identify significant investment negatives or challenges facing Micron Technology. Outlook Micron anticipates a worsening memory and storage shortage from 2027-2028, which should support continued strong pricing and profitability. The company plans to return all excess cash to shareholders, primarily through buybacks, starting from 9 December 2026 when CHIPS Act restrictions end. The base case projection suggests returning approximately US$70 billion in FY27, equivalent to roughly US$1,100 per share, potentially boosting earnings per share by about 6%. Recommendation & Target Price Phillip Securities Research maintains a BUY recommendation with a raised target price of US$1,950, up from the previous US$1,870. The analysts increased FY27 revenue and adjusted PATMI forecasts by 11% and 22% respectively due to expected rises in DRAM and NAND prices, whilst lowering FY27 price-to-earnings assumptions to 12x from 14x. Frequently Asked Questions [market_journal_faq] This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. 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PhillipCapital Strategy & Stock Picks 4Q2026: Key Sectors and Equity Market Outlook
Brief Overview Singapore equities posted their fifth consecutive and strongest quarterly gain, rising 9.8% in 3Q26 and reaching a fresh record on 4 September. A 22% year-to-date advance ranks Singapore as Asia's fourth-best performer. Banks led the outperformance on above-consensus 2Q26 results driven by a jump in wealth management fees, while shipbuilders rallied on an order book recovery as US-to-China container freight rates surged 36%. Cost pressures and demand headwinds weighed on consumer and food-related counters, and a spike in bond yields triggered a de-rating across S-REITs. Investment Positives The Equity Development Programme (EQDP) has served as a structural catalyst for Singapore's small-mid cap stocks. Now in its 3rd phase — with S$5.4 billion of the S$6.5 billion allocation announced cumulatively — EQDP has driven a rally in small-mid caps since its February 2025 announcement. Institutional participation has become more significant, with higher-conviction ownership in small-mid cap names, and Singapore-dedicated equity fund assets under management soared almost five-fold over the past eight months. Rising global bond yields are not expected to derail growth. Higher yields mirror improving economic conditions, and aggressive AI-driven capital expenditure is accelerating corporate demand for capital, marking a transition from a savings glut to a capital-starved world. Banks remain a favoured sector, with rising interest rates providing pricing power alongside loan volume growth. Semiconductors are viewed especially positively — the earnings upcycle has only just begun this year, making the sector an attractive EQDP target. Oil and gas enjoy a revival due to energy security concerns, firmer oil prices stimulating a capex cycle, and Offshore Support Vessel operators benefiting from an ageing fleet and tight yard capacity. A 60% year-to-date rally in coal prices alongside a 50% output expansion provides strong earnings leverage for Geo Energy. In construction, building materials and dormitories are preferred segments, with order momentum expected to peak post Terminal 5 awards. Singtel was added to the Absolute 10 portfolio, offering structural earnings and monetisation drivers through data centres and GPU-as-a-Service, with mobile price repair underway across multiple Asian markets. Challenges Uncertainty over bond yields and inflation risk from the Middle East conflict keeps REITs under pressure. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, with further tightening likely, and rate expectations swung up 112 basis points from December 2025 to September 2026. Rising government bond yields have made Singapore equities less attractive, with the earnings yield spread over two-year bond yields at multi-year and one standard deviation lows, potentially capping overall market multiples. Property stocks have de-rated due to interest rate worries, with high rates in Australia and the UK dampening valuations and asset monetisation efforts. Hospitals and consumer sectors face headwinds — insurance payers are pressuring healthcare providers on pricing, while consumer spending continues to reel from rising inflation. REITs fell 10% this year, with 17 REITs or trusts hitting new 52-week lows in a single week. Outlook Singapore equities trade at a premium 17x PE, above the historical average of 15x, but this is justified by growing earnings momentum across multiple sectors. The key risk is whether elevated bond yields begin to present headwinds. The Absolute 10 model portfolio rose 5.5% in 3Q26, underperforming the broader market's 9.8% gain, with drags from profit-taking in Frencken and poor results from Sembcorp Industries. Recommendation & Target Price In the Absolute 10 model portfolio for 4Q26, Phillip Securities Research removed Stoneweg Europe Stapled Trust and added Singtel. The portfolio maintains overweight positions in banks, semiconductors, and oil and gas, while remaining underweight REITs, hospitals, and consumer sectors. Frequently Asked Questions [market_journal_faq] This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
AvePoint Inc.: AI Revolution Drives Demand for Independent Data Governance Solutions
Brief Overview AvePoint Inc., a US-headquartered SaaS company, has achieved a historic milestone by completing a secondary listing on the Singapore Exchange in September 2025, becoming the first of its kind to dual list in Singapore. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the surge in global AI spending, which is forecast to grow 49.5% year-on-year to US$2.7 trillion in 2026. With 73% of organisations already operating hybrid-cloud environments, the increasing complexity of AI-related data, security and costs is driving demand for independent governance solutions. Investment Positives The analyst identifies several compelling investment merits for AvePoint. AI adoption is creating dual opportunities in governance and cost optimisation. As AI-driven errors can propagate and cause significantly greater damage than human errors within short timeframes, enterprises are increasingly requiring fast recovery capabilities to minimise operational disruption. Simultaneously, the rapid escalation in AI spending is making cost optimisation a critical priority for companies scaling their AI adoption. AvePoint addresses these challenges by helping enterprises optimise costs across three key areas: identifying underutilised licences to right-size software spending, clearing redundant data to reduce cloud storage and training costs, and implementing agent cost tracking to rationalise underutilised agents and reduce overall AI expenditure. The company's multi-platform approach creates a structurally competitive advantage. As enterprises increasingly adopt fragmented combinations of Microsoft, Google, Salesforce, AWS and other platforms to access best-of-breed capabilities whilst comparing costs and avoiding excessive vendor dependence, the need for independent oversight grows. Individual vendors can only provide analytics within their own ecosystems and lack visibility across broader IT environments. This positions AvePoint favourably as an independent player capable of consolidating data, usage, governance, and cost insights across multiple platforms into a single control layer. AvePoint has demonstrated sustained strong financial performance with structurally improved profitability. Annual Recurring Revenue increased from US$215 million in FY22 to US$417 million in FY25, representing a 25% compound annual growth rate. Growth remained robust at 27% year-on-year in 2Q26. Non-GAAP operating margin expanded significantly from -1.2% in FY22 to 18.9% in FY25. Challenges The analyst notes that increased investments to capture AI-related opportunities are expected to temporarily moderate margins in FY26. However, non-GAAP operating income is still guided to grow 10% year-on-year despite these investment pressures. Outlook The analyst expects continued strong performance with revenue growth of 23% in FY26e and 20% in FY27e, reflecting the company's strong positioning in the evolving AI landscape. Recommendation & Target Price Phillip Securities Research initiates coverage of AvePoint Inc. with an ACCUMULATE rating and a target price of S$20.00. The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow analysis utilising a 7.9% weighted average cost of capital and a 5.0% growth rate. Frequently Asked Questions [market_journal_faq] This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. 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ETF Monthly Review: Mixed September Performance with Muted October Outlook Expected
Brief Overview September proved challenging for most ETFs, with the gold-tracking ETF (GLDM) suffering the steepest decline of 6.7%, whilst the Bitcoin ETF (BITO) stood as the sole gainer with a 5.4% rise. Current market conditions show most major asset classes in range consolidation, though US Treasury Bonds, Gold, and the Hang Seng Index remain in downtrends. October is anticipated to bring sideways consolidation for some assets whilst others may extend their weakness. Investment Positives Limited bright spots emerged from September's performance, with Bitcoin demonstrating notable resilience. The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF gained 5.4% in September, marking its third consecutive month of positive performance. This sustained momentum reflects continued strength in the cryptocurrency space despite broader market challenges. The S&P 500 showed relative stability, with the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF experiencing only a modest 0.3% decline during September. This minimal pullback suggests underlying market resilience in US equities, with the index maintaining its position within a range consolidation pattern. Several ETFs are positioned for sideways consolidation in October, indicating potential stability ahead. The S&P 500 ETF is expected to find support in the US$697.50 to US$704.30 area, whilst the oil-focused XOP ETF may trade within a defined range between US$172 and US$185. Challenges Gold faced significant headwinds in September, with the SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust tumbling 6.7% to become the month's worst performer. The precious metal has entered a clear downtrend, raising concerns about further weakness ahead. US Treasury Bonds encountered notable pressure, with the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF declining 3.3% in September. This asset class has shifted into a downtrend pattern, reflecting challenging conditions in the fixed income market. Asian markets demonstrated vulnerability, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ETF pulling back 3% for the second consecutive month, maintaining its downtrend status. Singapore Equities also showed weakness, with the relevant ETF snapping a five-month winning streak by declining 0.7%. Oil markets faced headwinds with the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF pulling back 4.7% during September, though it remains within a range consolidation pattern. Outlook October is expected to deliver muted performance across most asset classes. Four major ETFs - those tracking the S&P 500, US Treasury Bonds, Oil, and Bitcoin - are anticipated to consolidate sideways during the month. However, three asset classes face potential further weakness. Gold may extend its decline and potentially retest the US$78.33 swing low from late June, representing a 4.5% downside risk. Singapore Equities could fall to the US$5.59 support level if they break below US$5.72, indicating a possible 2.2% decline. The Hang Seng Index may retest support at HK$80.70, suggesting a potential 1.6% downside. Recommendation & Target Price The report provides specific technical levels and percentage projections for various ETFs but does not include an overall investment recommendation or target prices. The analysis focuses on directional expectations, with some assets expected to consolidate whilst others may extend their current weakness into October. Frequently Asked Questions [market_journal_faq] This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. 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