Consensus Estimate
Table of Contents
What is a Consensus Estimate?
A consensus estimate is one of the best ways to get knowledge about the projected earnings of a specific public company. Here, reports of all the equity analysts covering the stock of the public company are analysed to work out the consensus estimate. The reports indicate the earnings per share of the company. The two things on the basis of which the consensus estimate is derived are the company’s size and the number of analysts that cover the company. However, these estimates are not accurate or precise as they depend on an array of factors like the prior financial statements of the company and products of the company. In case the company misses a consensus estimate, this can send the stock tumbling. On the other hand, if the results exceed the estimate, the company’s stocks may soar.
How Does a Consensus Estimate Work?
Consensus estimates are done by securities analysts when they make an earnings estimate about the company. The main objective of the estimate is to analyse and forecast the performance of companies. The estimate is done by reading disclosures, talking to management, studying the products and monitoring the industry. A detailed mathematical analysis is performed on the company, and this sheds light on how well a company could perform in the near future. Most companies use these estimates to sell or buy securities.
Consensus Estimates and Market (In) Efficiencies
Consensus estimates proves that the market is not always efficient. There are different factors that contribute to the inaccuracy of the market. Also they prove that the estimates regarding future events are not always precise. A missed consensus does not always affect the share price of the company. This is why consensus estimates are not always true indicators, as there can be market fluctuations and inefficiencies that can affect the stock price.
Frequently Asked Questions
The consensus estimate is calculated by taking into account the estimates for a particular stock given all the analysts who cover the company. The aim of the estimate is to give investors a general idea about how well the company will perform. To calculate the consensus, the average of all the analysts’ individual estimates is calculated. The resulting number is an estimate if the stock will perform well in the future.
A consensus price target in stocks is the average of all the individual price targets of the analysts. In simple terms, the price target in terms of consensus is the price at which an analyst believes a stock to be valued in the market. Studies show that the price targets are 30% accurate. Let’s take an example to understand the price target in stocks. When an analyst lowers the price target, then the analyst expects that the price will fall in the near future. On the other hand, raising the price target means that the analyst believes that the stock price will rise.
Consensus rating score is the average of multiple analysts ratings for one stock. For the calculation of the consensus rating score, all the earnings per share number for a company for a set period are taken into consideration. For instance, if analysts believe that the earnings of the next three weeks will be $3.00, $2.70 and $3.20, the rating score is calculated by taking the average of all the earnings. The consensus estimate in this case will be ($3.00 + $2.70 + $3.20/3) = $2.97. The term is often referred to as consensus recommendations that give an opinion of stock performance over a certain period of time.
Zacks consensus estimate is the average of all current EPS estimates made by analysts regarding a stock. It is an estimate which reduces the risk of taking the figures of only a single analyst into account. The method is 70% accurate.
The simple formula to calculate Zacks consensus estimate is:
ZACKS CONSENSUS ESTIMATE = THE AVERAGE OF ALL CURRENT EPS ESTIMATES
Market consensus is the simple average of all estimates given by analysts for the future stock performance. A total of 12 analysts perform the estimates in calculating the total market consensus evaluation. Also known as a simple consensus estimate, it shows the result of how a particular company will perform in the future. It gives a general idea to the investors of whether or not they should invest in the particular stock. Market consensus evaluation indicates whether you should buy or sell the stock in the market to generate profit.
Related Terms
- Cost of Equity
- Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR)
- Interest Coverage Ratio
- Industry Groups
- Income Statement
- Historical Volatility (HV)
- Embedded Options
- Dynamic Asset Allocation
- Depositary Receipts
- Deferment Payment Option
- Debt-to-Equity Ratio
- Financial Futures
- Contingent Capital
- Conduit Issuers
- Calendar Spread
- Cost of Equity
- Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR)
- Interest Coverage Ratio
- Industry Groups
- Income Statement
- Historical Volatility (HV)
- Embedded Options
- Dynamic Asset Allocation
- Depositary Receipts
- Deferment Payment Option
- Debt-to-Equity Ratio
- Financial Futures
- Contingent Capital
- Conduit Issuers
- Calendar Spread
- Devaluation
- Grading Certificates
- Distributable Net Income
- Cover Order
- Tracking Index
- Auction Rate Securities
- Arbitrage-Free Pricing
- Net Profits Interest
- Borrowing Limit
- Algorithmic Trading
- Corporate Action
- Spillover Effect
- Economic Forecasting
- Treynor Ratio
- Hammer Candlestick
- DuPont Analysis
- Net Profit Margin
- Law of One Price
- Annual Value
- Rollover option
- Financial Analysis
- Currency Hedging
- Lump sum payment
- Annual Percentage Yield (APY)
- Excess Equity
- Fiduciary Duty
- Bought-deal underwriting
- Anonymous Trading
- Fair Market Value
- Fixed Income Securities
- Redemption fee
- Acid Test Ratio
- Bid Ask price
- Finance Charge
- Futures
- Basis grades
- Short Covering
- Visible Supply
- Transferable notice
- Intangibles expenses
- Strong order book
- Fiat money
- Trailing Stops
- Exchange Control
- Relevant Cost
- Dow Theory
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- Hope Credit
- Futures contracts
- Human capital
- Subrogation
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- Strategic Alliance
- Probate Court
- Procurement
- Holding company
- Harmonic mean
- Income protection insurance
- Recession
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- Pump and dump
- Total Debt Servicing Ratio
- Debt to Asset Ratio
- Liquid Assets to Net Worth Ratio
- Liquidity Ratio
- Personal financial ratios
- T-bills
- Payroll deduction plan
- Operating expenses
- Demand elasticity
- Deferred compensation
- Conflict theory
- Acid-test ratio
- Withholding Tax
- Benchmark index
- Double Taxation Relief
- Debtor Risk
- Securitization
- Yield on Distribution
- Currency Swap
- Overcollateralization
- Efficient Frontier
- Listing Rules
- Green Shoe Options
- Accrued Interest
- Market Order
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- Target Leverage Ratio
- Acceptance Credit
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- Abridged Prospectus
- Data Tagging
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- Back Months
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- Actual market
- Credit risk
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- Financial independence
- Annual report
- Financial management
- Ageing schedule
- Global indices
- Folio number
- Accrual basis
- Liquidity risk
- Quick Ratio
- Unearned Income
- Sustainability
- Value at Risk
- Vertical Financial Analysis
- Residual maturity
- Operating Margin
- Trust deed
- Profit and Loss Statement
- Junior Market
- Affinity fraud
- Base currency
- Working capital
- Individual Savings Account
- Redemption yield
- Net profit margin
- Fringe benefits
- Fiscal policy
- Escrow
- Externality
- Multi-level marketing
- Joint tenancy
- Liquidity coverage ratio
- Hurdle rate
- Kiddie tax
- Giffen Goods
- Keynesian economics
- EBITA
- Risk Tolerance
- Disbursement
- Bayes’ Theorem
- Amalgamation
- Adverse selection
- Contribution Margin
- Accounting Equation
- Value chain
- Gross Income
- Net present value
- Liability
- Leverage ratio
- Inventory turnover
- Gross margin
- Collateral
- Being Bearish
- Being Bullish
- Commodity
- Exchange rate
- Basis point
- Inception date
- Riskometer
- Trigger Option
- Zeta model
- Racketeering
- Market Indexes
- Short Selling
- Quartile rank
- Defeasance
- Cut-off-time
- Business-to-Consumer
- Bankruptcy
- Acquisition
- Turnover Ratio
- Indexation
- Fiduciary responsibility
- Benchmark
- Pegging
- Illiquidity
- Backwardation
- Backup Withholding
- Buyout
- Beneficial owner
- Contingent deferred sales charge
- Exchange privilege
- Asset allocation
- Maturity distribution
- Letter of Intent
- Emerging Markets
- Cash Settlement
- Cash Flow
- Capital Lease Obligations
- Book-to-Bill-Ratio
- Capital Gains or Losses
- Balance Sheet
- Capital Lease
Most Popular Terms
Other Terms
- Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
- Floating Dividend Rate
- Flight to Quality
- Real Return
- Protective Put
- Perpetual Bond
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- Non-Diversifiable Risk
- Merger Arbitrage
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- Income Bonds
- Guaranteed Investment Contract (GIC)
- Flash Crash
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- Cost Basis
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- Earning Surprise
- Bubble
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- Junk Status
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- Interest-Only Bonds (IO)
- Inflation Hedge
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- Exotic Options
- Execution Risk
- Exchange-Traded Notes
- Event-Driven Strategy
- Eurodollar Bonds
- Enhanced Index Fund
- EBITDA Margin
- Dual-Currency Bond
- Downside Capture Ratio
- Dollar Rolls
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- Distribution Yield
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