Economic Forecasting 

Economic forecasting is a critical component of economic analysis. It involves predicting the coming economic conditions based on various indicators and data that have been relied upon and used in the past. This process is fundamental to policymakers, businesses, and investors since it allows them to make informed choices about allocating resources, formulating policies, and strategizing their investments. 

What is Economic Forecasting? 

Economic forecasting is the organised approach by which future economic tendencies and conditions can be predicted. It involves the use of both quantitative models as well as qualitative appraisals to forecast variables such as Gross Domestic Product, inflation rates, employment levels, and consumer spending. Based on historical data and several pointers about the economy now, forecasters attempt to decipher the general direction the economy might take over some given time period, short-term projections over weeks or months, and long-term projections that run over more than several years. 

Understanding Economic Forecasting 

Understanding economic forecasting is based on the interrelation of several economic variables. Economists use statistical methods to analyse such interrelations and obtain patterns that may be used to predict future expectations. In most cases, it follows the following steps: 

  • Data Collection: Obtaining historical data regarding economic indicators, which include growth in Gross Domestic Product, unemployment rate, inflation rates, and interest rates. 
  • Choosing a Model: Selecting appropriate models that can be causal, time-series-based, or qualitative. 
  • Analysis: Applying selected models to available data for the prediction. 
  • Validation: Verifying the accuracy of the prediction from actual outcomes to tweak the models used. 

Ultimately, the result should result in working predictions that can be used as a guide or basis for making choices in public and private industries. 

Types of Economic Forecasting 

Economic forecasting can be broadly categorised into several types based on the approaches used and the concentration areas of the analysis: 

  • Macroeconomic Forecasting: Macroeconomic forecasting focuses on an economy’s general performance. It deals with forecasts regarding GDP growth, inflation rates, interest rates, and general consumption. Forecasts are, therefore, essential to governments in policy formulation and to business enterprises for strategic planning. 
  • Microeconomic Forecasting: This is quite the opposite of the above since macroeconomic forecasts focus on certain sectors or industries. Such forecasts are essential in enabling businesses to know market dynamics and consumer behaviour in a specific particular field. 
  • Short-term vs long-term forecasting: This spans a few weeks to a couple of years, which falls mainly within the operational plan. Above two years’ horizons, these forecasts are critical to strategic planning and investment decisions. 
  • Qualitative vs Quantitative Forecasting: Qualitative forecasting relies on expert opinions and market research when historical data is scarce or unreliable. However, quantitative forecasting usually uses statistical methods and mathematical models in order to analyse historical data trends.

Challenges in Economic Forecasting 

Economic forecasting may be quite essential but still experiences various challenges that have a bearing on its accuracy: 

  • Data Limitations: Poor or incorrect data may result in incorrect projections. Economic statistics are sometimes revised after initial publication, and determinations may change if new data is not available. 
  • Model Uncertainty: Different models can result in different projections based on the assumptions followed by that model and its methodology. The wrong model can lead to critical projection errors. 
  • External Shocks: Events such as natural disasters, heightened geopolitical tensions, or pandemics can significantly alter economic conditions and render previously made projections irrelevant. 
  • Behavioural Factors: Economic agents do not always behave rationally; psychological factors can truly alter consumers’ preferences and, therefore, market dynamics in unpredictable directions. 

Examples of Economic Forecasting 

Economic forecasting is widely applied in different industries. Some of the most significant examples are: 

  • Central Banks: Institutions like the US-based Federal Reserve also regularly publicise economic expectations to guide monetary policy directives. Their forecasts typically contain inflation expectations and employment trends, among other factors. 
  • Government Agencies: National statistical offices often report economic outlooks that inform fiscal policy decisions. A prime example is the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility, which provides the most informative budget provisions for the government budget on prospects of economic performance. 
  • Private Sector Analysts: Banks and investment banks hire economists to generate market analyses that guide investment decisions. The banks could issue quarterly earnings estimates as an indicator of macroeconomic variables.

Frequently Asked Questions

Economic forecasting is important for several reasons: 

  • It helps policy authorities frame appropriate fiscal and monetary policies given future economic scenarios. 
  • Companies require forecasts to make informed decisions about investments, production, and market strategy. 
  • Investment forecast helps investors understand market risks and opportunities and, therefore, guide their portfolio management strategies. 

There are three categories of indicators based about the business cycle: 

  • Leading Indicators: These measures change before the economy commences to follow a specific trend. Examples are stock market performance and new housing starts. Therefore, they offer advance indications of future economic activity. 
  • Lagging Indicators: These indicators show change only after the economy has begun to move in some trend. Some examples include the unemployment rate and corporate profits. They would establish past economic trends but only have little to predict. 
  • Coincident Indicators: These metrics are said to be changing along with the economy as a whole. Examples include GDP and retail sales. They will establish information about the current economic situation. 

Building an economic forecast involves several following steps: 

  • Define Goals: Determine what exactly should be forecasted about the economy, e.g., growth of GDP 
  • Collect Data: These provide data from experience available from government entities and financial institutions. 
  • Choose Models: Choose statistical or econometric models that are appropriate for the type of forecasting. 
  • Analyse and then use the models by applying current data to generate predictions. 
  • Verify Results: Compare forecasted results against real results over time to ascertain correctness and adjust methodologies appropriately as needed. 

 General forecasting models comprise of: 

  • Time Series Models: These models examine historical patterns over time to determine future values based on time series models (ARIMA models). Causal Models: These models determine variable interrelationships and build relationships (regression analysis) with the intent of calculating the impact when influencing factors change. 
  • Qualitative Methods: These depend on expert opinions or market research when the required data support is lacking (for example, the Delphi method). 

 

Several factors relate to the effectiveness of economic forecasting: 

  • Quality of Data: Input data significantly affects the outcome of forecasts; bad-quality data can generate wrong predictions. 
  • Model Selection: Model selection is essential; improper models fail to include critical relationships between variables. 
  • External Shocks: Something like a financial crisis or natural disaster breaks the established trends, leading to wrong predictions. 
  • Behavioural Economics: Human psychology influencing consumer behaviour may not always agree with the established theoretical models of economics, making predictions a bit challenging. 

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    What is an Active ETF?

    Published on Sep 26, 2025 36 

    An Active ETF is an exchange-traded fund with a portfolio that is actively managed by investment professionals. Unlike passive ETFs that simply mirror a stock index, investment in active ETFs involve ongoing buy and sell decisions aimed at achieving a specific goal — whether that is outperformance, generating income, or capturing exposure to a particular theme. How Active ETFs differ from Passive ETFs Objective: Passive ETFs aim to replicate an index (e.g., S&P 500). Active ETFs aim to outperform a benchmark or achieve a specific outcome (e.g. high income or targeted growth). Management: Passive ETFs follow rules automatically while active ETFs rely on human judgement, quant models, or a combination of both. Costs: Active ETFs usually charge higher management fees because of the research, trading, and portfolio management involved. Transparency & Holdings: Passive ETFs typically disclose holdings frequently and are predictable. Some active ETFs may disclose less often to protect proprietary strategies, although many still provide daily updates. 2. Why Demand for Active ETFs Is Growing Access to differentiated strategies Active ETFs open the door for retail investors to tap into strategies once reserved for mutual funds or large institutions. These can include thematic bets on artificial intelligence, enhanced income strategies, or opportunities in niche and tightly regulated markets. ETF wrapper benefits With active ETFs, investors enjoy the best of both worlds: the expertise of an active manager combined with the advantages of the ETF structure. This includes intraday liquidity (they trade like a stock), potential tax efficiencies, and lower minimum investment amounts compared with some mutual funds. Innovation and regulation Recent regulatory developments and improvements in ETF infrastructure have empowered asset managers to launch a wider variety of active strategies in ETF form. This growing menu of options caters to investors’ appetite for more tailored outcomes, driving innovation across the industry. 3. Common Active ETF Strategies (with Examples) Fund managers launch active ETFs using different strategies to appeal to investors with specific goals or preferences. Some of the most common approaches include: A. Thematic & Growth Active ETFs Goal: Capture long-term growth by investing in themes such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotics, or disruptive technologies. Example (US): ARK Innovation (BATS: ARKK) — actively selects disruptive growth companies Example (SG): Lion-Nomura Japan Active ETF (SGX: JJJ) — actively selects Japanese stocks with AI-assisted processes B. Income & Option-Enhanced ETFs Goal: Deliver steady income by combining dividends with strategies like covered calls or option overlays. Example (US): JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF - (NYSEARCA: JEPI) uses options to enhance yield C. Sector / Regional Active ETFs Goal: Leverage managers’ best ideas in a specific region or sector (e.g. Japan, ASEAN, healthcare) Example (SG): Active Japan ETF JJJ (SGX: JJJ) - An Active ETF where the manager selects 50–100 stocks tailored to current market opportunities 4. Benefits and Risks: What Investors Should Consider Benefits Potential to beat benchmarks: Active managers can exploit inefficiencies, allocate tactically, and lean into high-conviction opportunities Customisation: Investors can express specific views — such as AI adoption or Japan’s recovery — through a single ETF Operational convenience: Active ETFs trade on exchanges like stocks, offer intraday liquidity, and usually have lower minimums than traditional mutual funds Risks & Drawbacks Manager risk: Returns depend heavily on the manager’s skill and process. Past performance is no guarantee of future success Higher fees: Active strategies are generally more expensive, and over time, higher costs can eat into returns Transparency tradeoffs: Some active ETFs limit disclosure to protect proprietary models, which can reduce clarity for investors Underperformance odds: Statistically, many active funds fail to outperform comparable passive benchmarks over time 5. How Singapore Investors Might Use Active ETFs Portfolio Roles Satellite allocation: Use active ETFs as satellites around a core passive portfolio (e.g., 5–15% tactical exposure to AI or income) Access niche markets: Gain exposure to overseas or tightly regulated markets via locally listed active ETFs without complex account setups Income overlay: Replace or complement fixed income with option-enhanced active ETFs for higher distributed yield Tips for ETF selection Understand the manager’s process and look for a track record in comparable mandates Check fund fees, turnover, and tax considerations Limit allocation to active ETFs to a level consistent with your conviction and risk tolerance (e.g., 5–20% of portfolio) Review holdings / performance regularly and watch for changes in strategy or personnel 6. Key Takeaways — Active ETFs Active ETFs blend professional management with ETF convenience: intraday trading, tax efficiency, and low operational friction. They can deliver differentiated outcomes — alpha, income, or niche themes — but they demand confidence in the manager and come with higher costs. They are best used as satellite positions, complementing a low-cost passive core. Due diligence is essential: read the prospectus, examine the manager’s process, and evaluate costs and track record. Conclusion Active ETFs are reshaping the investment landscape by combining the expertise of active management with the convenience of the ETF structure. They provide opportunities for outperformance, targeted exposure, and innovative income strategies, but they also come with higher costs and the risk of underperformance. For Singapore investors, active ETFs can serve as useful satellite allocations alongside a low-cost passive core, offering access to niche markets, thematic opportunities, or enhanced income. Success, however, hinges on careful manager selection, disciplined allocation, and regular review. As the ETF market continues to evolve, active ETFs are likely to play a growing role in portfolios — not as replacements for passive funds, but as complementary tools to help investors navigate a more complex investment environment. Stay tuned for our next feature, where we explore factor-based ETFs and how they fit into a modern portfolio. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. 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    100% Spenders in Singapore: How to Break Free from Living Paycheck to Paycheck

    Published on Sep 17, 2025 184 

    In 2024, 78.3 per cent of companies in Singapore granted wage increases as compared to 65.3 per cent in 2023, according to the Ministry of Manpower’s Report on Wage Practices 2024 1. Despite this growth in earnings, there are still people who end up with no savings every month, specifically 29%, according to a survey done by Sun Life Singapore 2. These are what I call “100% spenders”; every dollar that comes in goes straight out, leaving no savings, let alone investments. On the surface, they may look financially comfortable, but in reality, they are only one emergency away from financial stress. When asked about their lack of savings, familiar replies surface: “Life is expensive in Singapore” or “I’ll save when I earn more.” But the real reason is not just the cost of living; it is also how easy spending has become, combined with a culture that encourages greater consumption as incomes rise. The Ease of Spending Take PayNow, for example. It has become second nature to users to scan a QR code and pay within seconds. A recent study found that 68% of Gen Z in Singapore prefer PayNow as their main mode of payment 3. This convenience is good for efficiency, but it also makes spending too easy. When spending cash, you physically see the notes leaving your wallet; a more conscious action which reminds you of your accumulative expenses over time. With PayNow and contactless credit cards, no physical cash leaves your hands, making it easy to lose track of how much you are actually spending. The same applies to installment plans. Platforms like Atome have become extremely popular, especially among younger consumers. Research shows that 77% of Gen Z in Singapore have used Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services, compared with fewer than half of millennials and only 13% of boomers. 4 Atome alone has over 1.3 million registered users, mostly aged between 21 and 45. 5 It is not uncommon to see young clients juggling four or five instalments at once. Each one is small, perhaps a few hundred dollars for clothes or gadgets, but together they consume a large portion of monthly cash flow. Debt becomes normal before savings have a chance to take root. Lifestyle and Culture Technology is only part of the story; the bigger driver is lifestyle inflation and social pressure. As income rises, so do expectations. What was once a luxury — dining out, travel, or premium subscriptions — quickly becomes a necessity. Social media amplifies this, making conspicuous consumption part of everyday life, fueling consumers’ urge to “keep up”. The reality is that most adult Singaporeans understand the basics of savings, having been taught the mechanics of compulsory savings under the CPF scheme. The issue is not financial literacy but the gap between knowledge and action. It is less about what people know and more about taking responsibility for putting that knowledge into practice. Building Systems That Work Discipline and will power rarely sustain long-term financial change. What works far better is creating a system that makes saving automatic, much like CPF does. Create a personal CPF-like savings or investment account. As soon as your salary is credited, arrange for a fixed portion, usually 15 to 25 per cent, to be automatically deposited into this separate account. Treat it as untouchable. Over time, it will grow into an emergency fund, long-term savings, or investment capital. Reframe instalments. If you are comfortable committing S$100 a month to fashion or gadgets, why not redirect that same amount into a savings plan or a regular investment? When used wisely, instalments for regular savings can build assets, not debts. Manage lifestyle inflation. Rather than upgrading your lifestyle every time income increases, tie those upgrades to net-worth milestones. This helps to ensure lifestyle growth does not outpace wealth growth. The Results With systems in place, change often happens naturally. People who once struggled to save may find their balances growing steadily. Those who claimed “I just can’t save” realise they can, because the system does it for them. This is not about cutting out joy or living with harsh restrictions; it is about structuring finances so that both spending and saving are intentional. By automating positive habits, the cycle of being a “100% spender” can finally be broken. Final Thoughts In Singapore, spending has never been easier. With modern technology, every temptation is just a tap away. But while technology and culture encourage us to consume, only responsibility and structure can create long-term security. The key is to build systems that make saving and investing a habit, not a choice. That is how “100% spenders” transform into wealth builders — and achieve financial freedom. Contributor: Joshua Lim Wealth Manager Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) https://bit.ly/TTPjoshualim Appendix: [1] https://www.ntuc.org.sg/uportal/news/Nominal-and-real-wages-grew-in-2024-but-are-expected-to-taper-in-2025/ [2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/large-part-singapore-unprepared-retirement-123057707.html [3] https://www.xero.com/us/media-releases/digital-payment-trends-singapore-gen-z-leading-shift/?utm_source=chatgpt.com [4] https://www.channelnewsasia.com/today/big-read/buy-now-pay-later-debt-credit-4846131?utm_source=chatgpt.com [5] https://www.magzter.com/stories/newspaper/The-Straits-Times/YOUTH-IN-SINGAPORE-BUYING-INTO-BUY-NOW-PAY-LATER-SERVICES-REPORT?srsltid=AfmBOor-Ell17DenCu69OwzKn5QiL0V8nczkM5cCFGoKuiUwhSLZ58tY&utm_source=chatgpt.com Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

    Recognising Biases in Investing and Tips to Avoid Them

    Published on Sep 4, 2025 280 

    Common biases like overconfidence, herd mentality, and loss aversion influence both risk assessment and decision-making. Know the emotional and behavioral biases in investing. In investing, the biggest challenge is often not the market but our own minds. Emotions, habits, and common mental shortcuts can quietly steer decisions in the wrong direction. A Charles Schwab survey found that over 50% of retail investors make choices purely because of the fear of missing out (FOMO). Other influences such as confirmation bias, overconfidence, and the bandwagon effect can cloud judgment and lead to poor outcomes. But once you’re aware of these traps, you can take steps to avoid them and make investment decisions that truly work toward your financial goals. What Is Behavioural Bias in Investing? Behavioural biases are predictable psychological patterns in thinking that lead us away from logical, fact-based decision-making. For example, you hear that investors are rushing into a certain tech stock touted as "the next big thing". You purchase the stock at a premium without analysing the stock in detail. If the decision plays out in your favour, this flawed reasoning feels justified, which may encourage bigger mistakes in the future. If the stock falls, you realise that you were merely jumping on the bandwagon. 5 Common Investor Biases (and How They Can Hurt Your Portfolio) Herding - Chasing Hot Stock Herding happens when investors mimic the actions of others, assuming the crowd possesses superior information or due to a lack of confidence in their own analysis. This often results in chasing trends at the last minute, after most of the profit has been realised. Confirmation Bias Confirmation bias occurs when you consciously look for information that confirms your existing beliefs but dismiss evidence that proves the contrary. For instance, if you believe a technology company is a great investment option, you might only read positive articles and ignore any negative news about that company. Loss Aversion Loss aversion makes investors hold onto losing stocks longer than they ought to, in the hope of a recovery. The pain of a loss feels greater than the joy of an equivalent gain, causing poor decisions and prolonged losses. Overconfidence Overconfident investors overestimate their abilities and knowledge, believing they can outpace the market. This often leads to excessive trading, under-diversification, or unnecessary risks. Irrelevant Price Anchoring Anchoring bias occurs when investors become obsessed with certain prices, such as the previous high of a stock or the price they paid for, and makes irrationally buy or sell decisions consequently. Strategies to Mitigate Behavioural Biases Even though these behavioural biases can affect your investing strategy and reduce potential returns , there are ways to mitigate them. Do Your Research: Carry out fundamental and technical analysis before investing in a stock. This analysis helps you assess risks and returns objectively and choose the right stocks for your portfolio. Be Disciplined: Be it systematic investment, setting stop-loss levels, or asset allocation, discipline takes emotion out ofdecision-making and helps you stay consistent. How Phillip SMART Portfolio Can Help You Invest Bias-Free The Phillip SMART Portfolio is built to take emotion and bias out of investing: Cyborg Methodology – An algorithm processes over 1,000 data points daily, reducing reliance on emotions on trends, while experienced managers add market insight. Automated Rebalancing – Keeps your portfolio on track, avoiding panic selling, herding behaviour or chasing rallies. Professional Oversight – Experts manage your portfolio using a disciplined, research-based approach, countering overconfidence and confirmation bias. Low Entry Barrier – Start from just S$300, making it easier to begin investing steadily, reducing loss aversion and fear of entering the market. Customised Portfolios – Choose from Income, Growth, or US Equity profiles to match your goals and risk tolerance, preventing irrational anchoring to irrelevant benchmarks. Find out more about SMART Portfolio : https://smart.poems.com.sg/ Conclusion Behavioural biases are an inseparable part of the human psyche and making decisions that are completely free from these biases is often easier said than done. However, by developing a rational and focused approach, investors can avoid the pitfalls of these biases. Alternatively, you can also leverage the Philip SMART Portfolio that uses a data-driven strategy to grow your corpus and secure your future. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person who may receive this document. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the units and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. Investors may wish to seek advice from a financial adviser before investing. In the event that investors choose not to seek advice from a financial adviser, they should consider whether the investment is suitable for them. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned.

    What is Money Dysmorphia and How to Overcome it?

    Published on Sep 4, 2025 127 

    Money dysmorphia happens when the way you feel about your finances doesn’t match the reality of your situation. It’s not simply the occasional anxiety we all experience about money; it’s a persistent, distorted perception that can affect how you live, spend, and save. You might have a steady income, healthy savings, and no debt, yet still feel as though you’re financially insecure or “behind” compared to others. Over time, this mindset can lead to spending (or saving) habits that aren’t in your best interest. What Are the Common Symptoms of Money Dysmorphia? A leading cause of money dysmorphia is social comparison, particularly online, which makes you question your success even when you are doing well. Here are some common signs that you may have money dysmorphia: Repeatedly thinking that you do not have enough money Stressing out over small things despite having sufficient funds Unendingly comparing your earnings/savings with others Avoiding checking your bank account due to fear Always imagining worst-case financial scenarios Worrying about money when you don’t need to Continuously seeking more ways to increase income Avoiding shopping or making purchases altogether Experiencing intense shame or guilt after buying anything Frequently maxing out the limit of your credit cards How to Overcome Money Dysmorphia? Research shows that 41% of millennials and 43% of Gen Z currently experience money dysmorphia. While there is no way to entirely prevent this insecurity and dysmorphia , here are the tips you can follow to overcome money dysmorphia: 1. Review and Track Your Budget Understanding your financial situation is one of the best ways to overcome money dysmorphia. Track your income, expenses, savings, and goals. Once you look at the numbers clearly, it's simpler to ground your emotions in facts. You can do this through a simple spreadsheet or budgeting apps. The more often you check in, the more you'll feel like you're taking control. 2. Reframe Your Perceptions about Money Your financial objectives should be shaped by your personal objectives. Not by social media or peer comparisons. Reflect on your actual circumstances and the root of your discomfort. Not being content with your current financial situation is justifiable. However, if you are consistently saving, on track with your obligations, and able to treat yourself occasionally, your fears may not be justified. 3. Make Smart Financial Choices Don't let fear or external pressure influence your financial decisions. Take time to plan, learn, and know where your money is heading. It's okay to spend and to save but ensure that your decisions are influenced by your goals and not anxiety. Make Your Money Work for You with SMART Park Another practical way to overcome money dysmorphia is to invest your money for growth. This is where PhilipCapital SMART Park can help. As an Excess Funds Management Facility that automatically invests your idle cash into money market funds, SMART Park avails the following key benefits: No lock-in period No admininstration fee No sales charge Easy online transfer and withdrawal Learn more about SMART Park here Conclusion Money dysmorphia can cloud your judgment and hold you back from enjoying the financial stability you’ve worked hard for. You can overcome it by tracking your budget and changing your perceptions, aligning your financial reality with your perception. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

    The Employer’s Guide to Domestic Helper Insurance

    Published on Sep 2, 2025 1728 

    Domestic Helper insurance may appear to be just another compliance task for employers in Singapore, but in reality, it plays a critical role in protecting both the employer and the domestic helper. The right domestic helper insurance plan could protect you from unforeseen costs and ensure your helper is well cared for in times of need. With the enhancements to coverage requirements effective from 1 July 2025, protection is now stronger and fairer. Employers willing to invest a little more can often secure a policy that rivals local hospitalisation plans. Hence, there’s now a greater need for employers to understand what they are purchasing and how to choose a plan that truly meets their household’s needs, instead of just fulfilling legal obligations. 1. What is Domestic Helper Insurance? Domestic Helper insurance (also known as Maid or Migrant Domestic Worker (MDW) Insurance) is a mandatory policy that covers medical, accident, and liability risks associated with hiring a helper. Under Singapore’s Ministry of Manpower (MOM) regulations, every employer must purchase insurance before the helper commences work. Domestic Helper Insurance protects both the employer (against financial liability) and the domestic helper (through accident and health coverage). Without it, employers may bear the full cost of unexpected medical bills, repatriation, or third-party liability. MOM’s Mandatory Requirements: Medical Insurance: At least S$60,000/year (covering inpatient care & day surgery) Personal Accident Coverage: At least S$60,000 in the event of accidental death or total permanent disability Security Bond[1]: A S$5,000 bond for non-Malaysian MDWs MOM’s Rules: Insurance must be in place before the helper commences work or before the renewal of work permit Employers who fail to do so may face penalties, revocation of work permits, and blacklisting 2. Why is Domestic Helper Insurance Important? For Financial Protection Unexpected events such as accidents, surgeries, or medical conditions can cost thousands of dollars. Repatriation for a critically ill or injured helper is often also costly. Insurance shields you from such sudden and significant financial burdens. For Peace of Mind Employers are legally liable for their MDWs. Having proper insurance reduces both legal and financial risk, allowing employers to focus on their families and work, knowing that their helper’s medical and emergency needs are covered when required. 3. Why is the Domestic Helper Insurance either a 14 or 26 Month Plan? Domestic Helper Insurance plans are issued for either 14 or 26 months, rather than 12 or 24 months. MOM requires an additional 2 months of coverage (at no extra charge) to ensure your MDW remains insured after the work permit expires, in case repatriation is delayed. Most plans also offer a letter of guarantee for the mandatory S$5,000 security bond, as required by the MOM, for non-Malaysian MDWs. 4. What is a Security Bond & Waiver Option? Employers are also required to post a $5,000 security bond (for non-Malaysian MDWs) as a financial guarantee to MOM. However, many insurance plans include an optional waiver of indemnity, meaning that if the bond is forfeited due to unforeseen circumstances (e.g., the helper runs away), the insurer will cover the cost up to the stated amount, provided the employer has not breached any conditions. This is an important detail that many employers overlook, and opting for a plan that includes a bond waiver can prevent significant out-of-pocket losses. 5. What does the Domestic Helper Insurance Typically cover? To name some: Coverage What It Includes Hospital & Surgical Expenses2 Inpatient care, surgery, specialist treatment, emergency care, etc. Annual limit of at least S$60,000, with a co-payment of 20% - 25% by employers for claim amounts above S$15,000 (depending on insurer) Coverage for pre-existing medical conditions (if the helper is employed for more than 12 months in Singapore) Personal Accident Compensation for death or permanent disability due to accidents for up to S$100,000 (depending on insurer) Repatriation Expenses Costs of sending the helper home in case of death or permanent disability, up to S$20,000 Personal Accident Compensation for death or permanent disability due to accidents for up to S$100,000 (depending on insurer) Third-Party Liability If the helper accidentally injures others or damages property Re-hiring Expenses Covers agency/recruitment costs if the contract is terminated prematurely Accident Medical Reimbursement GP visits, TCM, dental—depending on the plan 6. Should employers opt for only S$60,000 or more? Although S$60,000 is the current legal minimum for medical coverage, employers should consider whether this amount is sufficient. A single hospitalisation involving surgery, ICU care, or an extended stay could easily exceed this amount. Choosing a plan with higher limits may provide better protection, particularly for households with elderly, young children, or dependents with complex needs. 7. How to choose the right Insurance Plan Choosing the right domestic helper insurance depends on your risk profile, budget, and your helper's role in the household. Ask Yourself: Do you have elderly or children at home (This means a higher workload and risk, so you may want a plan with higher liability coverage and outpatient care benefits.) What is the medical coverage limit, and is it sufficient for your needs? Is ease of claim and a 24/7 hotline support important to you? Key Factors to Compare: Hospital & Surgical Expenses coverage limits (e.g. $60k vs $120k) Outpatient care inclusion Accident medical reimbursement Co-payment terms Early termination or re-hiring benefits Online claims & emergency helplines Length of Stay: Choose longer coverage periods (e.g., 26 months instead of 14 months) to reduce renewal hassle 8. Is My Helper Covered During Holidays Back Home? No. Domestic Helper Insurance only covers your helper while they are in Singapore. If they travel back home, it is advisable to purchase travel insurance for the duration of their trip. 9. Are Hospital Bills Settled Directly by the Insurer? Yes. With the new regulations effective from 1 July 2025, insurers are required to make payments directly to hospitals. This spares employers from having to put up a large payment upfront if their domestic worker requires hospitalisation. 10. What Should Employers Know About the Letter of Guarantee (LOG)? Some hospitals may require a deposit for your helper's hospitalisation or emergency admission. Your insurer can issue a Letter of Guarantee (LOG) under policy conditions, including pro-ration and co-insurance. If provided, the insurer pays hospital expenses directly up to the LOG or policy limit. Employers are responsible for any amount not covered. If the deposit exceeds the LOG, employers may need to make a partial payment. Note: LOG applies to Singapore Public/Restructured Hospitals only. Its issuance doesn't imply approval or admission of any claim under the policy, pending insurer assessment. 11. What are the Pros and Cons of Domestic Helper Insurance? Pros Cons Shields you from high medical bills Some cheaper plans may exclude common treatments Ensures compliance with MOM regulations Limited coverage for pre-existing or mental health conditions Covers wage loss, liability & repatriation Co-payments and waiting periods may apply Some include teleconsultation, no-claim bonuses, or digital platforms Misunderstanding of exclusions may lead to rejected claims Conclusion: Protect Yourself and Your Helper Domestic Helper Insurance is more than just a legal obligation—it’s a vital way to ensure you are prepared for unforeseen situations while treating your domestic helper fairly and responsibly. A thoughtful choice in policy will give you peace of mind and help you manage your responsibilities smoothly as an employer. A basic plan is legal and sufficient – until something goes wrong. A comprehensive plan is strategic – it cushions you when something does. You don’t need to overpay, but don’t underinsure either. Compare wisely. Need Help Choosing a Plan? If you’re unsure which plan suits your needs, feel free to reach out to me for a complimentary consultation. I’ll help you choose a plan that best fits your budget and your household needs. References: [1] If the security bond is not in effect when your helper arrives in Singapore, the immigration officer will not allow entry. You will have to send them home immediately.https://www.mom.gov.sg/passes-and-permits/work-permit-for-foreign-worker/sector-specific-rules/security-bond [2] 12-month waiting period for pre-existing conditions apply. Insurers are not required to pay for claims arising from pre-existing illnesses occurring within 12 months of working for the same employer. https://www.mom.gov.sg/-/media/mom/documents/work-passes-and-permits/standardised-allowable-exclusions-for-medical-insurers.pdf. Refer to Group C: Others (u).employer. Contributor: Sebastian Yeap Financial Services Manager Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) https://bit.ly/TTPsebastianyeap Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

    One Stock, Many Prices: Understanding US Markets

    Published on Aug 26, 2025 1261 

    Why Isn’t My Order Filled at the Price I See? Have you ever set a sell limit price, watched the market tick right past it, and thought, “Great, my order should be done by now!”—only to find nothing happened? You check your account again, and mysteriously, your order has expired unfilled. Puzzled, you checked Yahoo Finance. Sure enough, the day’s high shows a price higher than your limit. So why wasn’t your trade executed? The answer lies in the hidden details behind US market operations —where your order is routed, which exchange it reaches, and why the price you see on a consolidated tape or a price feed might not be the price available to you at that exact moment. Unlike SGX or HKEX, which operate a single centralised exchange where all orders are routed and matched, and where market participants receive the same standardised price feed, other markets, such as the US, may have multiple venues with differing order routing and pricing mechanisms. In this article, I’ll take you behind the scenes of order routing and explain how it works, what really happens when you click “Buy” or “Sell,” and why sometimes your order doesn’t get filled at the order price you place. Understanding Consolidated Tape and National Best Bid and Offer Consolidated Tape The consolidated tape is a feed that aggregates all quotes and trades from all registered exchanges. Think of it as a highlight reel of transactions happening across different venues. Below is a simple illustration: National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO) From this tape, the National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO) is calculated and disseminated by Securities Information Processors (SIPs). It shows the highest available bid (buy price) and lowest available ask (sell price) across all protected US trading venues at any given moment. Under SEC Regulation National Market System (NMS), brokers must ensure client orders are executed at the NBBO or better. Under Regulation NMS, the Rule 611 (Order Protection Rule) is designed to prevent “trade-throughs,” where orders are executed at a worse price than what is available elsewhere. However, there are certain exceptions to this rule, such as: Rule 611 exemptions - Certain trades may qualify for an R6 exemption, meaning a trade can occur at a price outside the NBBO in specific situations. (e.g., blocked trades, intermarket sweep order) Special order types (e.g., pegged orders, midpoint orders) Odd-lot orders (fewer than 100 shares), which historically were not included in NBBO calculations but are now included in the SIP feed, though they may still be treated differently by some systems How Orders Reach the Market Nowadays, retail orders are never routed directly to exchanges. Instead, they are typically sent to market makers—such as Citadel Securities, Virtu Financial, Goldman Sachs, or J.P. Morgan—which may internalise the trade by filling it at a price equal to or better than the NBBO, or, if necessary, route the order to an exchange for execution if they cannot provide the required liquidity. This also means that execution prices may vary slightly between different market makers, depending on their available liquidity, order flow, and internal pricing models. Still, US regulations require orders to be executed at a price equal to or better than the NBBO at the time of the trade, and all trades must be reported to their affiliated Trade Reporting Facility (TRF). Why the Price You See May Differ Different Market Data Sources Many brokers and news outlets use alternative market data feeds. For example, POEMS provides the NASDAQ basic price feed, quotes, and trades from NASDAQ-operated venues, not from all exchanges. As a result, prices may vary slightly from those displayed on platforms that utilize the full consolidated tape. Execution Venue Mismatch Your order may be routed to a venue other than NASDAQ, such as NYSE, Cboe, or off-exchange venues like dark pools, that are not reflected in the NASDAQ basic price feed. While the NBBO ensures you still receive the best available price, the quote you’re watching may not match the venue your order reached. Insufficient displayed liquidity Even if NBBO shows a certain price, the number of shares available at that price might be too small to fill your entire order, causing part or all of it to be executed at the next available price. Take Apple Inc. (AAPL) as an example: its primary listing is on the NASDAQ Global Select Market (NASDAQ GS). This means NASDAQ is considered its “home” exchange for quoting and regulatory purposes. However, trading in AAPL is not limited to NASDAQ. Orders can be executed on: Other national exchanges (e.g., NYSE, Cboe) Alternative Trading Systems (ATSs), including dark pools operated by brokers and institutions. Market makers (E.g., Citadel, Virtu) can internalise trades or route them to exchanges. Regardless of where the trade is executed, it will still be reported to the consolidated tape via the SIP. This ensures the trade is reflected in the consolidated feed that forms the basis of the NBBO. AAPL Consolidated Price Feed AAPL NASDAQ GS Price Feed AAPL NYSE Price Feed AAPL NYSE Arca Price Feed Summary Table As shown above, the reported Open, High, Low, and Close (OHLC) values can differ slightly across exchanges because each market centre executes trades independently. This does not mean that clients receive the worst executions. Under SEC Regulation NMS and the NBBO rule, orders must always be filled at the best price available across all venues at that moment. In this case, a venue such as NYSE Arca recorded a better price than the prevailing NBBO, which explains why it reported the highest high of the day compared to other exchanges. (Refer to the NBBO example mentioned earlier). Conclusion In conclusion, understanding how data such as consolidated tapes and NBBO work can give investors better clarity on how trades are executed and why prices may differ across venues. Most importantly, orders must always be filled at the best price available across all venues based on regulation. This applies to customers trading via POEMS with us. Your orders are executed at the best available price, then, in compliance with the strict requirements of the NBBO. We ensure that all executions meet or improve upon the best bid or offer available across all protected market centres—not just the primary exchange. Furthermore, we can provide detailed trade reports to verify that every execution is carried out in the best interest of our investors. If you want to verify any price differences, you can contact our Phillip Night Desk for a price feed check. We hope this article has provided you with useful insight into how US exchanges operate. If you’re curious to learn more, explore our previous article how extended hours trading works —including why prices may differ during those sessions—or check out our latest write-up on options trading. Visit our website or contact our dedicated Night Desk team at globalnight@phillip.com.sg or (+65) 6531 1225. Start investing smarter with POEMS today—open an account and trade the US markets now! Open an Account Now! Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. CFD Disclaimer This promotion is provided to you for general information only and does not constitute a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the investment product mentioned. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation or any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of your acting based on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks. The risk of loss in leveraged trading can be substantial. You may sustain losses in excess of your initial funds and may be called upon to deposit additional margin funds at short notice. If the required funds are not provided within the prescribed time, your positions may be liquidated. The resulting deficits in your account are subject to penalty charges. The value of investments denominated in foreign currencies may diminish or increase due to changes in the rates of exchange. You should also be aware of the commissions and finance costs involved in trading leveraged products. This product may not be suitable for clients whose investment objective is preservation of capital and/or whose risk tolerance is low. Clients are advised to understand the nature and risks involved in margin trading. You may wish to obtain advice from a qualified financial adviser, pursuant to a separate engagement, before making a commitment to purchase any of the investment products mentioned herein. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a qualified financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest and we do not offer any advice in this regard unless mandated to do so by way of a separate engagement. You are advised to read the trading account Terms & Conditions and Risk Disclosure Statement (available online at https://www.poems.com.sg/) before trading in this product.

    Why Every Investor Should Understand Put Selling

    Published on Aug 26, 2025 301 

    Introduction Options trading can seem complicated at first, but it offers investors flexible strategies to complement a traditional buy-and-hold portfolio. One popular approach is selling put options, which allows you to collect premium income and potentially buy stocks you like at a discount. To earn a steady income or acquire shares at a price you’re comfortable with, selling puts is worth understanding. Understand the Basics: What is a Put Option? When you sell a put option, you agree to buy a stock at a specific price (known as the strike price) if the buyer decides to exercise the option before it expires. In exchange, you receive a premium (cash) upfront. If the buyer doesn’t exercise the option, you keep this premium as your profit. Typically, one stock option contract represents 100 shares of the underlying stock. What does it mean to Sell a Put Option? Selling a put option is like being an insurance company. The Benefits of Selling Put Options 1) Earn Premium Income Each time you sell a put, you collect a premium upfront. If the option expires worthless (stock price stays above the strike), you keep this premium as profit. In the example above, selling a put option with a strike price of US$100 and receiving a US$500 premium means that if, at expiry, the underlying share price is above US$100, the option will typically expire worthless, you keep the full US$500 premium. 2) Buy Stocks at a Discount If the stock price drops below the strike price, you’ll be assigned the shares. However, you’re buying at the strike price minus the premium collected, which effectively lowers your cost basis. In the example above, buying the shares at the strike price of US$100 and receiving a US$500 premium lowers your breakeven price to US$95 per share. This means you would still earn US$2.50 per share in profit even if the stock falls to US$97.50. (1 contract = 100 shares) 3) Flexibility in Market Conditions Selling puts works best when you expect the stock to remain flat or rise slightly. Unlike strategies that rely solely on upward price movement, this approach allows you to generate returns in a broader range of scenarios. Understanding the Risks of Selling Put Options 1) Below your strike price If the stock drops sharply, you may have to purchase it at a higher price than the market is offering, leaving you with an unrealised loss. In the example above, buying the shares at US$100 and receiving a US$500 premium lowers your breakeven price to US$95 per share. However, if the stock price falls to US$90, you would face an unrealised loss of US$5 per share. 2) Potential for Large Losses Premiums are limited, but downside risk is not. If the stock keeps falling, losses can accumulate in the same way as directly owning the shares. How to Mitigate the Risk? Like any strategy, selling puts comes with its risks, but these can be managed effectively. 1) Sell Puts on Stocks You’re Comfortable Owning Choose stable and reputable companies that you’re willing to own at a lower price. That way, even if you’re assigned, you’ll own a stock you believe can recover over time. 2) Be Mindful of Market Conditions Selling puts works best in neutral to slightly bullish markets with some uncertainty. Instead of waiting for prices to fall (and possibly missing opportunities), selling puts allows you to stay engaged in the market and earn premiums despite elevated valuations. 3) Generate Passive Income Strategically If you believe the stock is stable but prefer not to own it outright, you can continue selling puts to collect premiums. Rolling positions further out in time can also help reduce downside impact. Example Scenario You like Company ABC, currently trading at US$100, but would prefer to buy it at US$95. You sell a put option with a US$100 strike price and receive a US$500 premium for the contract sold. Two outcomes: Stock stays above US$100: You keep the US$500 premium and the option expires worthless. Stock falls below $100: You’re assigned and must buy 100 shares at $100 each. However, after factoring in the $500 premium ($5 discount per share), your breakeven price is $95 per share, giving you a discount compared to the original price. Conclusion Selling put options can be a powerful way to generate income and acquire stocks at attractive prices, provided it is applied with discipline and proper risk management. For investors keen to explore this strategy straightforwardly, POEMS has launched a strategy-friendly Cash-Secured Put feature designed to help investors better understand and incorporate this strategy into their portfolios. Ready to start? Explore our beginner-friendly options platform today, or if you would like to dive deeper into other strategies, check out our detailed guide on Cash-Secured Puts. For more information on trading the US markets through POEMS, visit our website or contact our Night Desk representatives at 6531 1225 (available from 2 PM onwards). Don’t wait— register your account today and take the first step towards accessing these exciting markets! Open an Account Now! Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. CFD Disclaimer This promotion is provided to you for general information only and does not constitute a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the investment product mentioned. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation or any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of your acting based on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks. The risk of loss in leveraged trading can be substantial. You may sustain losses in excess of your initial funds and may be called upon to deposit additional margin funds at short notice. If the required funds are not provided within the prescribed time, your positions may be liquidated. The resulting deficits in your account are subject to penalty charges. The value of investments denominated in foreign currencies may diminish or increase due to changes in the rates of exchange. You should also be aware of the commissions and finance costs involved in trading leveraged products. This product may not be suitable for clients whose investment objective is preservation of capital and/or whose risk tolerance is low. Clients are advised to understand the nature and risks involved in margin trading. You may wish to obtain advice from a qualified financial adviser, pursuant to a separate engagement, before making a commitment to purchase any of the investment products mentioned herein. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a qualified financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest and we do not offer any advice in this regard unless mandated to do so by way of a separate engagement. You are advised to read the trading account Terms & Conditions and Risk Disclosure Statement (available online at https://www.poems.com.sg/) before trading in this product.

    Mastering Stop-Loss Placement: A Guide to Profitability in Forex Trading

    Published on Aug 19, 2025 1674 

    Effective stop-loss placement is a cornerstone of prudent risk management in forex trading. It's not merely about cutting losses, but about preserving capital and allowing profitable trades to run their course. While the concept is simple, the art of setting an optimal stop-loss lies in understanding market dynamics and leveraging the power of technical indicators. This guide explores several key indicators, demonstrating how they can provide valuable insights for strategic stop-loss placement, with practical examples drawn from the forex market. The Indispensable Role of Stop-Loss Orders Before diving into indicators, it's crucial to reiterate why stop-loss orders are non-negotiable. They act as a predetermined exit point for a trade, limiting potential losses if the market moves against your position. Without a stop-loss, a single adverse market movement can wipe out a significant portion of your trading capital. By setting a stop-loss, you define your maximum acceptable risk per trade, fostering disciplined trading habits and protecting your portfolio from catastrophic downturns. Leveraging Technical Indicators for Precision Stop-Loss Placement Various technical indicators offer distinct advantages in identifying logical and effective stop-loss levels. Here’s how you can integrate them into your risk management strategy: 1. Average True Range (ATR): Adapting to Volatility Volatility is a constant in the forex market, and a static stop-loss often proves ineffective. The Average True Range (ATR) indicator addresses this by measuring market volatility over a specified period, typically 14 days. It provides an average of the true range (the largest of the current high minus the current low, current high minus previous close, or current low minus previous close), offering a dynamic measure of price fluctuations. How to Use ATR for Stop-Loss: Dynamic Placement: Instead of a fixed number of pips, ATR allows you to set a stop-loss that adapts to the current market environment. In highly volatile conditions, the ATR value will be higher, leading to a wider stop-loss, giving the trade more room to breathe. Conversely, in low-volatility environments, the ATR will be smaller, resulting in a tighter stop-loss. Multiplier Method: A common practice is to place your stop-loss at a multiple of the current ATR value. For instance, placing a stop-loss at 1.5 or 2 times the current ATR below your entry point for a long trade, or above your entry for a short trade. This ensures that your stop-loss is placed beyond the typical noise and daily fluctuations, reducing the likelihood of being stopped out prematurely due to minor market jitters. Example (EUR/USD): If you enter a long EUR/USD trade and the 14-period ATR is 0.0093 (93 pips), setting your stop-loss at 2x ATR would mean placing it 186 pips below your entry. This accounts for the pair's typical movement and provides a buffer against daily swings. Source: www.tradingview.com 2. Parabolic SAR: Trailing Your Profits and Limiting Losses The Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) is a trend-following indicator that produces a series of dots either above or below the price action. It serves as an excellent trailing stop-loss mechanism, allowing traders to lock in profits as a trend develops while simultaneously protecting against reversals. How to Use Parabolic SAR for Stop-Loss: Dynamic Trailing Stop: When the price is in an uptrend, the Parabolic SAR dots are below the price, continuously moving upwards, trailing the price. In a downtrend, the dots are above the price, moving downwards. Trend Reversal Signal: The beauty of the Parabolic SAR is its "stop and reverse" nature. When the dots flip to the opposite side of the price (e.g., from below to above in an uptrend), it signals a potential trend reversal and acts as an immediate exit point for your current trade, often prompting a reversal of your position. Placement Strategy: For a long trade, your stop-loss would be placed at the current level of the Parabolic SAR dot. As the trend progresses, the dot moves closer to the price, effectively trailing your stop-loss and protecting accumulated profits. Example (GBP/USD): If you are long on GBP/USD and the Parabolic SAR dots are steadily rising below the price, you would adjust your stop-loss to the level of the most recent dot. If the dots suddenly appear above the price, it indicates a potential downtrend and your stop-loss is triggered, exiting the long position. Source: www.tradingview.com 3. Moving Averages: Dynamic Support and Resistance Moving Averages (MAs) are widely used for identifying trend direction and potential support/resistance levels. They can also serve as powerful dynamic stop-loss indicators. Common moving averages include the 20-period, 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period MAs. How to Use Moving Averages for Stop-Loss: Support/Resistance Proxies: In an uptrend, shorter-period moving averages (e.g., 20-period or 50-period) often act as dynamic support levels. For a long trade, placing your stop-loss just below these moving averages can protect against minor pullbacks. Conversely, in a downtrend, MAs act as dynamic resistance. For a short trade, a stop-loss would be placed just above these MAs. Trend Confirmation: A decisive break and close beyond a significant moving average can indicate a shift in the underlying trend or momentum. If the price breaks significantly through your chosen moving average, it suggests that your initial trade premise may be invalidated, prompting an exit. Combination with Other Indicators: MAs are even more effective when combined with other indicators or price action analysis. For example, if a candlestick pattern forms a rejection off a moving average, it strengthens the case for using that MA as a stop-loss level. Example (AUD/USD): You enter a long AUD/USD trade as the price bounces off its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). You could place your stop-loss a few pips below the 100-period SMA. If the price then breaks and closes below the 100-period SMA, it signals weakness and your stop-loss would be triggered. Doing so also gives your trade some breathing room. As a swing trader with a full time job, such daily trades can make our money work harder and it only takes 10 minutes a day to look through the charts. Source: www.tradingview.com 4. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Identifying Potential Reversal Zones Fibonacci retracement levels are derived from the Fibonacci sequence and are used to identify potential areas of support and resistance during a price pullback. The key levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. How to Use Fibonacci Retracement for Stop-Loss: Beyond Retracement Points: When a price is correcting within a trend, traders often look for entry points at key Fibonacci retracement levels. Accordingly, a stop-loss can be placed just beyond the next significant Fibonacci level in the direction of the correction. For instance, if you enter a long trade at the 38.2% retracement, your stop-loss might be placed just below the 50% retracement level. Confluence with Other Levels: Fibonacci levels gain considerable strength when they align with other forms of support/resistance, such as previous swing highs/lows or moving averages. This confluence suggests a stronger likelihood of a price reversal or continuation, making them ideal areas for stop-loss placement. Example (USD/CAD): After a strong bearish move, USD/CAD pulls back to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. If you anticipate the trend to resume and enter a short position, you might place your stop-loss just below the 61.8% retracement level, providing a buffer against pullbacks. Source: www.tradingview.com Conclusion Regardless of the indicator you choose. Remember to be consistent. If you change your strategy or indicator each time you get stopped out, the results will also be inconsistent. Forex trading is a low barrier to entry for technical traders. It is an ideal product to start getting your feet wet and hone your technical skills. Finally, I’d like to share a list of Forex pairs with you to kickstart your trading journey. Source: www.tradingview.com With the right tools, you will greatly reduce the frequency of being stopped out in a trade, therefore increase your odds to become a profitable trader. How to get started with POEMS Source: www.tradingview.com POEMS award-winning trading platforms now bring you MetaTrader 5 (MT5), offering traders with advanced tools and seamless access to CFDs on shares, forex, indices, commodities, and more. Unlock superior trading capabilities with over 80 technical indicators, customisable charts, and algorithmic trading features. Whether you're new to trading or a seasoned investor, MT5 equips you with the tools to capitalise on market opportunities. Open Your POEMS CFD MT5 Account Today To start trading on POEMS CFD MT5, you’ll need an existing POEMS account. If you don’t have one yet, sign up for a POEMS account now to unlock the gateway to seamless CFD trading on MT5. Take advantage of the flexibility to trade CFDs on global markets with leverage, enabling you to diversify your portfolio and maximise trading potential anytime and anywhere. For enquiries, please email us at cfd@phillip.com.sg. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. CFD Disclaimer This promotion is provided to you for general information only and does not constitute a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the investment product mentioned. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation or any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of your acting based on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks. The risk of loss in leveraged trading can be substantial. You may sustain losses in excess of your initial funds and may be called upon to deposit additional margin funds at short notice. If the required funds are not provided within the prescribed time, your positions may be liquidated. The resulting deficits in your account are subject to penalty charges. The value of investments denominated in foreign currencies may diminish or increase due to changes in the rates of exchange. You should also be aware of the commissions and finance costs involved in trading leveraged products. This product may not be suitable for clients whose investment objective is preservation of capital and/or whose risk tolerance is low. Clients are advised to understand the nature and risks involved in margin trading. You may wish to obtain advice from a qualified financial adviser, pursuant to a separate engagement, before making a commitment to purchase any of the investment products mentioned herein. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a qualified financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest and we do not offer any advice in this regard unless mandated to do so by way of a separate engagement. You are advised to read the trading account Terms & Conditions and Risk Disclosure Statement (available online at https://www.poems.com.sg/) before trading in this product.

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